Presidential candidates can't take the West for granted

"Go West young man." Both George W. Bush and John Kerry should take that advice. Although lightly populated, the West will be important in what is expected to be a close election.

Politics are unpredictable and that is why I had my fingers crossed when, in the fall of 2000, I wrote in this column that the next president - Gore or Bush - might win despite losing the popular vote. Sure enough, George W. Bush is that minority president.

We are again faced with the unhappy and divisive possibility of being stuck with a president for whom most Americans didn't vote.

It is increasingly likely that George W. Bush will again receive a minority of the popular vote, however, it does seem that more than half the electoral votes are clearly within his grasp.

The widely held view that the popular vote between Kerry and Bush is dead even is, I believe, wrong.

The two candidates have basically been in a 45-45 percent toss up for months with the occasional 2 or 3 point fluctuation favoring first one and then the other. However, the critical undecided vote favors Kerry.

The bad news for Bush or any incumbent is that voters who are still undecided by August of the election year historically vote for the challenger by as much as 75 percent.

Today's undecided voters believe by a margin of 2 to 1 that America is moving in the wrong direction and less than 25 percent believe that the economy is in good shape.

They overwhelmingly believe that the war in Iraq is a mistake and, in a poll recently conducted by Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio (Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates), undecided voters in the toss-up states disapprove of the job Bush is doing by a 46 percent to only 40 percent who approve.

It now seems very likely, barring an unforeseen event - a terrorist attack among the more likely - that this president is destined to lose the popular vote for the second time in four years; something that has never happened in American history.

However, those who support George W. Bush should not despair because the all important electoral vote seems much brighter.

John Kerry has a steep wall to climb to achieve the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the White House. The states that Bush carried four years ago gave him 271 votes - one more than needed.

To win, Kerry must hold every state that Gore carried and take an additional 10 electoral votes from the Bush column.

The Associated Press has extensively analyzed the polling data and counts 21 states as toss-ups. Five of those are here in the West: New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Colorado and Washington.

Neither of the candidates can write off or take any region for granted. However, the smart betting is that the next occupant of the Oval Office will win at least three of those five western toss-up states.

Pat Williams served nine terms as a U.S. Representative from Montana. He now teaches at The University of Montana, where he also serves as a Senior Fellow at the Center for the Rocky Mountain West.