Experts predict tourism increase

The Montana tourism sector is expecting a strong summer, despite a shaky economy and gas expected to cost more than $4 a gallon.

It may seem that gas prices would be enough to discourage people from traveling long distances to places such as Glacier National Park.

But that's not the case, said Christine Oschel, interim director of the Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research at the University of Montana.

"We have forecasted visitor numbers to increase by 2 percent" this summer, Oschel said. "That's based on the fact that we've never seen gas prices affect tourism to our state in the past."

And the promising outlook is based on the irony of a weak dollar.

"With the weak dollar, we are getting a lot more foreign visitation," Oschel said. "Canadians are coming down like crazy."

Oschel concedes that gas prices this summer "will obviously be unprecedented."

But she raises a reminder: Last summer's gas prices also were unprecedented. And Glacier Park's visitation - widely considered a micro-barometer for broader tourism trends - increased by 6 percent over 2006 numbers.

Oshchel said summer vacationers tend to stick with their plans, regardless of gas prices.

But Montana is benefiting from visitors who are not necessarily coming to the state just for vacations. Canadians, in particular, are coming for shopping, business and to visit properties they've purchased.

"Because we are seeing more people representing these other components, we are seeing an increase" in overall visitation, Oschel said.

The weak dollar is expected to spur an increase in visitors from other countries. Nationwide, the Travel Industry Association is projecting a 4 percent increase in international visitors to the U.S. this year.

Dori Muehlhof, executive director of the Flathead Convention and Visitor Bureau, said the bureau's members all are reporting increases in advance reservations for summer.

"All the hotels are currently reporting that advanced reservations are up, year-to-date, and the forecast is looking very promising for a great summer tourism season," said Muelhof, who also noted the obvious increase in Canadian visitors.

"The exchange rate has definitely opened that segment back up to us," she said. "And we will be marketing in that direction."

At Grouse Mountain Lodge in Whitefish, reservations are "way up," especially for conventions, retreats and other group visits, said Jeff Laverdiere, the lodge's senior sales manager.

"We're looking at those things setting us up for a record July," Laverdiere said. "We've got a ton of Canadian golf groups coming in. I'd say that business will be up 10-20 percent."

Muelhof said high gas prices may influence what visitors do on their vacations, but they do not deter vacationers altogether. They may stay in certain locations longer, or they may change their activities.

In Glacier Park, for example, higher gas prices may be a driver for people using the park's free shuttle service, which exceeded park managers' expectations when it was launched last summer.

The shuttles transported 132,000 riders in 65 days of operation. The system was designed to handle an average of 800 to 1,600 riders per day, but on the busiest days of summer, the shuttles were averaging more than 2,000 riders per day.

Amy Vanderbilt, Glacier's communications manager, said adjustments in schedules and shuttle stops are being made this year to accommodate the high demand.

Last summer's visitation was not curbed by a number of challenges.

Besides high gas prices, there were repairs to heavy storm damage on Going-to-the-Sun Road that delayed the opening of the road at Logan Pass until July 1. The park embarked on the first full season of a comprehensive road reconstruction project that caused delays between the West Tunnel and Haystack Creek throughout the summer.

The project also forced a complete closure of the road in that section in mid-September, earlier than normal. In addition, a rash of large wildfires burned in Northwest Montana, including one just outside the park's southeastern boundary.

Even so, more than 2 million people visited the park last year.

"We are hopeful that we'll have a very busy season," Vanderbilt said in a presentation to the Flathead Convention and Visitors Bureau this week. "Hopefully, we'll have weather as good as it was last year."

Reporter Jim Mann may be reached at 758-4407 or by e-mail at jmann@dailyinterlake.com