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Are we there yet?

Rick Thomas | Hagadone News Network | UPDATED 14 years, 6 months AGO
by Rick Thomas
| July 4, 2010 9:00 PM

COEUR d'ALENE - Welcome to limbo. Not the party game, though political parties may seem to be making sport of it.

It's a time of uncertainty, and some are concerned that one possible outcome of the game could mean another round of recession.

At the beginning of 2011, tax cuts enacted eight years ago are set to expire, and unless Democrats, Republicans and those few holding the middle ground renew what are known as the Bush tax cuts, there is worry that increased taxes could thwart the economic recovery.

"You know how Republicans are," said Sen. Jim Risch, R-Idaho. "We would vote to reinstate them in a heartbeat."

But Democrats are expected to hold off on a vote on renewing the cuts until after the November mid-term election. And with that party holding a majority in both houses of Congress, and having insisted on a time limit to the cuts when they were enacted, it is not a sure thing they will pass an extension before that.

"Can you imaging going home to run for reelection?" Risch said. "People are mad enough as it is."

Income tax rates, along with rates for capital gains and estate taxes, will all rise if the cuts enacted in 2001 to 2003 are allowed to expire, the highest federal personal income tax rate will go to 39.6 percent from 35 percent, the highest federal dividend tax rate increases to 39.6 percent from 15 percent, the capital gains tax rate jumps to 20 percent from 15 percent, and the estate tax rate to 55 percent from zero percent.

"Decreasing capital gains is the way to get ourselves out," Risch said. And, he said, the change in the estate tax rate would be regressive for the economy.

He said he would "absolutely" vote to continue the cuts. "I would go further, he said. "I would make them permanent. I would start with the estate tax."

Rep. Walt Minnick, D-Idaho, was en route to Idaho for the weekend on Friday.

"Our nation faces very difficult decisions as we search for ways to lower our nation's dangerous national debt and stop deficit spending," he said in a statement issued through his Idaho office. "As a matter of fact, I have been literally sorting through ideas to cut spending today on my airplane flight back to Idaho."

Likewise, Idaho Republican Sen. Mike Crapo was traveling to the state for appearances in Sandpoint and Coeur d'Alene.

Among the concerns is that government spending as the executive and legislative branches tried to rescue the economy with financial bailouts will stall the economic recovery, already slow as unemployment remains high across the country.

Uncertainty about taxes is preventing the very investment that many believe is needed to turn that around.

"The biggest problem investors have is little confidence in putting money into the market and creating jobs," said Lindsay Nothern, spokesman for Crapo. "They think maybe it is better to put the money in their pocket."

Cutting taxes rather than raising them will stimulate jobs and put money into the U.S. treasury, he said.

Another concern is that gross domestic product will fall in 2011 as corporate profits are shifted to 2010 in order to avoid the higher tax rates, causing a severe drop in tax receipts next year and a further loss of confidence.

Nothern agrees the illusion could create the reality.

"People keeping money out of the market is part of the reason for the wild swings," he said.

Sending a signal to business by extending the tax cuts could provide an incentive for more investment, Nothern said.

While Republicans chafe at the thought of bailouts, some say they do have a place in the recovery.

"It is true government policy can positively and negatively affect the way our economy will expand and contract," said Craig Wilcox, a financial adviser for D.A. Davidson in Coeur d'Alene. "Nobody likes paying taxes but in many cases it can be a necessary evil. Having lower corporate tax in a state, for example, is obviously attractive to any business. However, if the taxing entity offers a beneficial service to the corporation, paying a tax might be a reasonable consequence."

The massive bailout to corporate America was accepted, and some states, such as California, were irresponsible with their budget and dug themselves in deeper, Wilcox said.

"We the people now have to pay for it sooner or later," he said. "The raising of taxes can have long-term and short-term effects, but rarely permanent. Yes we will have to pay higher taxes at some point, but the true concern is how long will it take our economy to adapt."

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