"Give me a one-handed economist!" Harry Truman said. "All my economists say, 'On the one hand ... on the other hand.'" He was frustrated with economic double talk when he made that remark, and I'm sure you share his frustration, as do I. Even though I believe our long-term outlook looks good, it's never been more apparent that no one knows what's going to happen with our economy in the near-term. Here's an example of what the experts are saying:

On the One Hand

On June 19, the front page headline of the Coeur d'Alene Press proclaimed "Personal Income Rises in Idaho: Economists believe economy has started to recover." Actually, by most economists' estimates, the national recession technically ended somewhere in the middle of 2009. That doesn't mean the economy became healthy then or is healthy now; it simply means that the economy stopped receding about a year ago. It's a slow recovery, for sure, but a recovery nonetheless.

On the Other Hand

Well-known economist Arthur Laffer speculates that our current economy looks better than it really is because many people are generating as much economic activity as possible this year while the tax rates are lower. In exchange, they plan to pull in their horns next year when rates will almost certainly rise. He speculates that we might see a double-dip recession beginning in 2011. Mr. Laffer believes our stock market will drop sometime before the end of the year in anticipation of a possible recession.

It's Anyone's Guess

Of course, it's ultimately unknowable whether a double-dip recession will happen next year or not. There are simply too many variables to make a concrete determination like that. In one sense, the financial markets have already priced in all the news of the day, which is almost all negative. But no one knows for certain. In fact, in the short-term, the economy may move up or down based on something we don't even know about yet.

You Need a Hand

These days, when even the economists are uncertain, we at Atchley Financial Group strongly encourage you to see your financial advisor. You need to be sure your portfolio is appropriately invested for you and your family in accordance with your financial plan and your goals for the future. As always, we urge you to get all the information you need because - when it comes to the management of your wealth - there's nothing more important than choosing wisely.

The Author

Les Atchley is the founder of Atchley Financial Group, a national wealth management firm headquartered in Coeur d'Alene that specializes in retirement, investment, and estate planning. He and his team of knowledgeable professionals help clients make intelligent decisions with their wealth in order to realize their goals and achieve financial independence. You can contact him directly at (208) 664-1900 or learn more about the firm by visiting its website at AtchleyFinancial.com.

Securities and advisory services offered through National Planning Corporation (NPC), Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Advisor. Atchley Financial Group, Inc. and NPC are separate and unrelated companies. Les Atchley is a Representative with National Planning Corporation (NPC). Certain statements contained within are forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, statements that are predications of or indicate future events, trends, plans or objectives. Undue reliance should not be placed on such statements because, by their nature, they are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties.