Low snowpack and a forecasted warmer than average spring could lead to a bad fire season, though summer rain will be the final indicator. 

“It’s too soon to tell but certainly the potential is building,” said Charlie Webster, fire management officer for Kootenai National Forest. “Half the time we have a low snowpack we have a bad fire season, but the other half we don’t.”

The snowpack above the Kootenai Basin is at 66 percent of average. Drought conditions in Montana are expected to persist or worsen and according to the National Interagency Fire Center’s March report, warmer-than-normal conditions are predicted to continue throughout this spring.

The report states that the El Niño weather pattern, which is occurring this year, tends to add to dry conditions and the potential of significant fire seasons in the Northern Rockies.

“The odds are against us because we are working with an El Niño year,” said Ed Levert, Lincoln County forester. “Unless those weather patterns change, we will be looking at a longer fire season and a worse fire season.”

Summer precipitation may be the saving grace.

“It depends on what we are going to get for summer rain,” Webster said. “July is most critical – usually a make or break for how bad the fire season is. If we don’t get any moisture in July, we always know we’ll have a bad August.”

Webster encourages locals to make their property fire-safe before fire season.

“Hopefully, all those people living in the woods are taking precautions,” he said. 

Levert, a strong advocate for fire preparedness, agreed.

“This is a good year for folks to get ready for a big one, but don’t bank on it,” he said.