The Columbia Falls School District’s general fund budget isn’t yet final, but school officials are anticipating a minimum $440,000 shortfall in 2011-12.

The actual budgetary picture is in flux until state legislators decide how much money education will receive. Until then, the district is making preliminary projections using the budget Gov. Brian Schweitzer presented in November.

According to those numbers, Columbia Falls faces a $210,000 deficit in its high school budget and a $230,000 shortfall in its elementary budget, Superintendent Michael Nicosia said.

But the estimates could change drastically depending on the Legislature and the result of negotiations with the district’s teachers union.

The numbers the district is working with incorporate steps and lanes — automatic raises teachers receive for accruing additional experience and education — but do not include increases to base salaries or benefits.

“At this point, we’re hoping to get through negotiations at a very minimal [increase to salaries and benefits] because of where we’re at in the revenue side,” said district clerk Dustin Zuffelato, who called the district’s budget projections a best-case scenario.

Negotiations will begin in a month or two, Nicosia said.

The larger deficit in the elementary district is actually the least problematic of the two.

Canyon Elementary, the district’s school in Hungry Horse, will close in June, creating a $700,000 savings in the elementary budget.

“The effect of the Canyon closure on the budget is a little bit unpredictable” because no one knows what the Legislature will do with education funding,  Nicosia said.

“It would mitigate some of the effect of the shortfall,” he said. “But it could all be eaten up in one year” if lawmakers make significant cuts to school funding levels.

The closure, which has drawn fiery criticism from residents in Hungry Horse and other Canyon communities, could mean the loss of the equivalent of 12 full-time jobs across the district.

“What I’m looking at is about 6.5 [full-time equivalent] in teaching staff and at least five para-educators,” Nicosia said.

That loss will be felt districtwide, Zuffelato said. Columbia Falls’ most recent hires likely would be first on the chopping block.

“It would be all based on seniority,” Zuffelato said.

When Canyon Elementary closes, its students will be bused to one of the district’s two other elementary schools in Columbia Falls. About 70 students would have attended the Hungry Horse school next fall, down from a high of 240 several years ago, Nicosia said.

That dwindling enrollment has occurred throughout the district, although the decline has stabilized to some extent at the elementary level, Nicosia said. The high school is a different story; enrollment there is 710, down from 799 three years ago.

Enrollment is an important factor in determining school funding levels. Schools average October and February head counts to determine how many students will be counted for state dollars; those numbers are averaged over three years to figure out how much money schools will receive.

That means Columbia Falls still is benefiting from its higher enrollment count three years ago, which makes a significant difference in the high school budget, Nicosia said. As bad as the deficit is, and as bad as it could be depending on what the Legislature does, it could be worse.

“Thank God for three-year averaging, because without it, we would be in a world of hurt,” he said.

Already the district is counting on making cuts at the high school level. Proposed cuts are far from finalized, but Nicosia outlined what they might look like.

“We’re looking at probably cuts of around $20,000 in nonpersonnel [textbooks and supplies], $170,000 in personnel and up to $50,000 in activities and athletics,” he said. “Once we have a better handle on what the revenue’s going to be, then the board can look at what cuts would be necessary and perhaps give the community a chance to save some programs or opportunities for kids.”

Nicosia would not say what programs might be considered for cuts; he said he hasn’t yet talked to teachers who might be involved.

For now, the district plans to make up the difference with cuts rather than asking taxpayers to approve a levy, he said.

Columbia Falls could shift some of the Canyon savings to help cover the high school deficit, but that “is something that the board would have to think about,” Nicosia said.

Doing so would just mean the Canyon savings would be used up that much sooner, something Nicosia was hesitant to support when the second year of the biennium likely will mimic the first.

“Whatever cuts take place this year will probably be mirrored in the following year,” he said. “It’s going to be difficult this year. I’m not sure how we’ll do it in the second year of the biennium.”

Reporter Kristi Albertson may be reached at 758-4438 or at kalbertson@dailyinterlake.com.