Randy Mann: He knows weather
BILL BULEY | Hagadone News Network | UPDATED 14 years, 2 months AGO
Bill Buley covers the city of Coeur d'Alene for the Coeur d’Alene Press. He has worked here since January 2020, after spending seven years on Kauai as editor-in-chief of The Garden Island newspaper. He enjoys running. | October 9, 2011 9:00 PM
Even on his wedding day, the weather snatched the spotlight from Randy Mann.
It was March 24, 1991, in Yosemite National Park, and it was pouring rain. Absolutely dumping.
During the ceremony, it got quiet. Must have stopped raining, everyone thought, so they opened the doors and looked. Yep, the rain had stopped.
It was snowing. Blizzard. Blinding.
"We could barely find the reception area, it was snowing so hard," Mann recalled, laughing. "I spent my time putting chains on cars, helping people get out rather than join the reception."
The weather has been and still is the center of attention for Randy Mann.
A meteorologist since 1980, he works with friend and climatologist Cliff Harris in both short- and long-range weather forecasting, and provides The Press forecast for North Idaho. He follows local, national and global weather patterns and incidents.
Mann, who also worked in the weather forecast side on television, teaches two physical geography courses at North Idaho College.
And, naturally, there's a section on the weather.
"I make it fun," he said.
When did you know you wanted to be a weatherman?
I've always had an interest in weather, since I was a kid. Ever since I was 5 years old. I grew up in Sacramento and always waited for it to snow. It never did. So I just had a fascination with it. We had to wait for what I would call the real weather, which is when you get the storms and that type of thing in the winter time. In the summer time in that particular area, it's just sunny and dry and hot, from June until October, so if you didn't get the moisture in the winter time, you had a problem.
I knew ever since I was a small child I would get into the business somehow.
I would watch for the storms, I watched the TV weather cast and I got so involved that I actually started interning at the local TV station when I was 14 years old. I think I'm probably one of the youngest on record to ever do that.
What's it like being in the weather business?
You get a lot of people asking you on a daily basis what the weather's going to be like. You really have to know what's going on all the time, even when you're on vacation, which is fine. It's actually kind of an honor, a little bit. They look at you and say, 'What's the weather going to be like?' It's one of the main topics for a lot of people, the weather.
So, do you predict the weather for people when they ask?
Are you accurate?
It's not 100 percent, but if your stockbroker was as accurate as we are, you would own Coeur d'Alene.
Speaking of Coeur d'Alene, are the winters and springs wetter than they used to be?
People always remember when we have the tough winters, the tough springs. This last one, it seemed like winter just went on forever. It pretty much started in November and carried all the way through to June with just straight days of rainy weather, snow, something.
We were always waiting for a longer stretch of sunny days because we wanted to go out and play golf. We just couldn't do it, you had to be inside all the time. This particular period this last year was really tough on a lot of people. Then you notice we flip to the other side and went to a dry summer and a dry fall. For a lot of folks, this was one of the greatest summers we've had.
Has there ever been a time you've been really wrong on a prediction?
Oh, it happens. Absolutely.
Did it catch you by surprise?
You can catch the patterns, but sometimes these storms, instead of coming over you, they'll take a path underneath you. That happened many years back when all of us were expecting a huge storm. Instead, it just split at that last minute. Part of it went north, part of it went south and we got missed. Sometimes that happens. Despite the technology that we have today, which is really pretty good, the accuracy just keeps getting better and better. Mother Nature will still eventually throw you a better curve ball that you don't see. We're still seeing patterns that today we really haven't seen before.
It's not an exact science, but it's tremendously improved over the last five to 10 years.
What's your favorite season?
When I lived in California, my favorite season was always the winter because that's when you got the storms coming in, that's when you got the action. It kind of varies up here for me. I do like the summer now. The early fall I really like because you get the change of the seasons, it's a little bit cooler. This time of year is one of my favorites.
What technology do you use to predict the weather?
Well, the Internet, you can get all kinds of charts, weather maps, they actually can be checked out several weeks in advance. Of course, when you get farther out, the less accurate they tend to be. The one thing I've learned working with Cliff is during particular lunar cycles, like the full moon, you start to recognize certain things. If you can incorporate that with the long range charts, sometimes you get a better idea of what's going on.
Do you feel any pressure to be right?
You want to be right. It is aggravating when you're wrong. Most of the time, I think we do a pretty good job. As far as short term, I think it's at least 80 percent. When you get longer out, it varies. You want to get it right. People plan their activities, they plan their day. There's a trust that's built up over time.
Weather-wise, if you could pick a place to live, where would you go?
I've often thought of that. I don't think there is any perfect place, especially even for somebody like me. This area is really good for weather.
What's your forecast for this winter?
Cliff and I have been going back and forth on this. Last year we had La Nina. The years we had the big snows we had La Nina. La Nina has returned, but it's weaker this time. Also during those big snow years we had very little sun spot activity. This year it's a little bit higher because we're heading toward that solar maximum we've heard so much about, for late 2012, early 2013. During the years we've had higher solar activity and a La Nina we've actually had less snow. I'm leaning toward at or a little above normal, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get considerably less if the La Nina holds back and sun spot activity picks up a little bit more in the next month or so.
The pattern is starting to set up to bring the storms. It could be one of those when it turns colder and drier rather than colder and wetter.
What's one thing you would tell people about the weather?
Don't sweat it.
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