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Economist advises perseverence

Cameron Rasmusson | Hagadone News Network | UPDATED 13 years, 3 months AGO
by Cameron Rasmusson
| October 17, 2011 9:00 PM

SANDPOINT - Although Bonner County economic livelihood is tied to the national and global economies, a little perseverance and faith in local businesses go a long way.

That sentiment carried the day at the Greater Sandpoint Chamber of Commerce meeting Thursday afternoon. Organized by D.A. Davidson and Associates, the luncheon presentations measured the financial pulse of the community in the larger economic scheme.

After a rundown of some local industries by Schweitzer Mountain CEO Tom Chasse and Riley Creek owner Marc Brinkmeyer, Mark Eibel of Russell Investments presented his predictions of the economic outlook for the near future.

According to Russell Investment predictions, the national economy has a 65 percent chance of shaping up for a period of weak but steady recovery. That means that the country will avoid the much-feared double dip recession, inflation will stay benign and equity valuations will rise after market fears subside.

"The bad news? There's no guarantee that we'll feel any better when we wake up in the morning," Eibel said.

According to Eibel, the most realistic recovery prospects point to a gradual process rather than dramatic, immediate improvements. However, the simple avoidance of a second recession could expedite improvements tremendously.

"It would make a huge psychological difference," he said.

The European debt crisis will also have an impact on local investors, Eibel added. With governments deferring decisions and investors becoming impatient, people can expect extreme market volatility, trading on speculation and sentiment-driven investing until a permanent solution is reached. According to Eibel, France and Germany will most likely write a check to float Greece, but only time will determine the form that will take.

"Here we have 17 countries, 17 parliaments and a long history of them hating each other," Eibel said. "Is it any wonder they're moving slower than we are?"

Regardless, Russell Investments economists predict that Greece will default. That will trigger short-term global volatility followed by steady recovery.

Eibel recommended that in a period of economic turmoil, local investors might want to consider diversified index portfolios to weather the storm. According to Russell Investments data, the investment strategy served investors well since March of 2009 and should continue to do so.

Ultimately, Eibel encouraged residents to remain patient and keep spirits high. Between an uncooperative political climate and global catastrophes, the nation endured tremendous economic stress and still hasn't buckled.

"We've processed and gone through a tremendous amount this year," Eibel said.

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