The chances for a white Christmas in North Idaho are near 80 percent

Randy and I issued our chances locally, nationally and globally for a brilliant WHITE CHRISTMAS in 2012 after the world 'supposedly' ends on Dec. 21, according to the Mayan calendar. We've included a U.S. map detailing these White Christmas probabilities.

Here is that article that we released early this past week:

Harris-Mann Climatology's forecasters see a high 80 percent chance or greater of at least an inch of snow on the ground across most of Canada and much of the extreme northern U.S. north of Interstate 90 on Dec. 25.

"The chances for snow in late December have increased because the warmer El Nino sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean has dissipated and is no longer influencing global weather patterns," says Meteorologist Randy Mann.

According to Harris-Mann Climatologist Cliff Harris, "As frigid Arctic air pushes southward into the northern and central U.S., heavier snowfalls are expected from the violent collisions between the very cold air to the north and copious amounts of moisture from the North Pacific regions as well as the Gulf of Mexico. We've already seen above-normal amounts of snowfall across parts of the northern U.S. due to a strengthening Sub-Polar Jet Stream. Several ski resorts have already opened for business in the Pacific Northwest."

Harris-Mann forecasters are predicting at least an 80 percent chance of a white Christmas from Canada southward into extreme northeastern Washington, North Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, northern Minnesota and points eastward into New England. Probabilities dip to 50 percent between Interstate 90 and Interstate 80, which includes most of Idaho, Colorado, South Dakota, much of Nebraska, Iowa, northern and central Illinois, northern Ohio and Pennsylvania and New York State, but not New York City. The Big Apple only has a 30 percent chance of a white Christmas this year.

"Cities and towns in the central U.S. near Interstate 70 eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states likewise have around a 30 percent chance of seeing snow on the ground on Dec. 25. There is only a 10 percent chance of a white Christmas across most of the southern U.S. this year, but anything is possible in this cycle of wide weather 'EXTREMES.'" according to Harris.

In 2010, rare snows were reported on Christmas Day in northern Mississippi, northern Georgia and the Carolinas. This year, however, there is only a 10 percent chance of snow in these areas on Dec. 25. Last year, in 2011, a light dusting of snow was seen in drought-stricken North Texas. For 2012, the chances are only 30 percent or so for Amarillo and 10 percent for the Dallas/Ft. Worth areas.

Around the globe, much of northern Europe and northern Asia have a very good chance for a white Christmas again in 2012. Record snows have already buried northern Japan this November as well as parts of northwestern China and Mongolia.

According to Harris, "the northern British Isles have a 50 percent chance of a white Christmas, which is high for that Gulf Stream warmed region. There is a strong 80 to 100 percent probability of snow across Norway, Sweden and Finland in Scandinavia. From eastern Europe into Russia, there is a 60 to 90 percent chance for a white Christmas. Even northern Italy has a 20 to 30 percent chance of seeing snow on Dec. 25. There could be a rare blanket of snow this Dec. 25 in Venice, Italy, where the canals froze last winter for the first time in decades."

Detailed monthly temperature, precipitation and snowfall forecasts for most U.S. and Canadian cities, including graphics, plus outlooks for the following 12 months for most major world cities are available at www.LongRangeWeather.com.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

The first 11 months of 2012 produced many WIDE WEATHER 'EXTREMES' across North Idaho and the rest of the Inland Empire.

January and February saw a combined snowfall total of 50.2 inches. This included a record 'Leap Year Day' snowfall of 6.8 inches on Player Drive.

March turned out to be the wettest such period since at least 1895 with an incredible 7.51 inches of rain that easily topped the previous record of 5.37 inches in 1916 by more than 2 full inches.

April and May were, like in 2011, both chilly and wet. June 2012 completed our wettest spring season in recorded history with a new monthly record of 5.84 inches.

July's rainfall total was nearly triple the 0.92-inch norm at 2.61 inches. Then, on July 20, high pressure pushed into the region and the heavy rains suddenly ended.

The rest of the summer and the early fall season was the driest such period on record locally in Coeur d'Alene since 1895 with a puny .23 inches from a thunderstorm on Aug. 21, the only measurable rainfall between July 20 and Oct. 12. Wildfires raged across the Inland Northwest.

Then on Oct. 13, the 'storm door' opened up to the Gulf of Alaska and we saw nearly three inches of rain drench the city by Halloween.

The month of November was one of the wettest on record with a whopping 5.12 inches of precipitation. Our annual rainfall total for 2012 at month's end reached 37.42 inches, just 1.36 inches from smashing sometime this December the all-time record yearly rainfall of 38.77 inches set during the 'BIG ICE STORM' year of 1996.

As of this Saturday, Dec. 1 writing at 10 a.m., our 2012 precipitation total had risen to 37.56 inches. More storms from the Pacific Ocean regions were in sight. Colder temperatures were expected fro the Gulf of Alaska that should bring our first measurable snows in town since Nov. 13 by late this week. November's total snowfall in Coeur d'Alene was 6.9 inches, a bit below the monthly normal since 1895 of 8.7 inches.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email [email protected]