The economic picture of the Flathead Valley still isn’t the rosiest, but it’s better than a year ago.

That was the consensus of speakers who talked about real estate statistics, the labor force and job opportunities at Montana West Economic Development’s annual economic outlook forum on Wednesday.

One of the biggest indicators of an economic turnaround is job growth, which was up 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2011 compared to the same time frame in 2010, said Brad Eldredge, director of institutional research, assessment and planning for Flathead Valley Community College.

Since the fourth quarter of 2008 — when the recession really dug in its heels in the Flathead — the area has had a “bad run of job declines,” he said. By the third quarter of 2009 the Flathead had lost 10 percent of its jobs.

“We’ve stopped declining,” Eldredge stressed. “I think we’re starting to grow again.”

The biggest job growth in this area has been in the accommodation and food-service industries, which added 486 jobs between the third quarter of 2010 and the third quarter of 2011.

Administrative and support industries, which includes the TeleTech call center in Kalispell, were up 277 jobs during that one-year period, while 169 jobs were created in management of companies. The health-care sector added 145 jobs over the year.

But the construction industry is still losing jobs, Eldredge said, to the tune of 212 jobs eliminated during that one-year period.

“It’s hard to foresee a big turnaround [in construction jobs] anytime soon,” he said.

Public administration, which essentially includes state and local government jobs, also found itself with a thinner work force, losing 77 jobs for the year. Educational services, also largely state government jobs, lost 82 jobs.

The federal stimulus programs that were created to combat the effects of the national recession saved public-sector jobs for a time, Eldredge said, but with most of those programs gone, “the recession is catching up with the public sector.”

Overall employment in the Flathead Valley currently is close to the level it was in 2005, at the height of the building boom here. If that rapid growth had been sustained, it would have created an additional 1,124 construction jobs and 719 positions in manufacturing, 114 jobs in real estate and 71 in wholesale trade businesses, he said.

Wage growth has been up and down over the past few years, but wages increased more than 1 percent in the third quarter of 2011, a good sign, Eldredge said. Industries with strong wage growth tend to be utilities, transportation and warehousing, wholesale trade, public administration and health care.

The accommodation and food-service industries showed declining wages, Eldredge said, but part of that may be job growth that included hiring more lower-wage employees.

“Over the long term the Flathead has been a very successful region,” he said, showing a chart of personal income since 1969. The Flathead held steady with Montana and U.S. personal income levels from 1969 through 1990, when the Flathead began to break away with higher personal income levels.

“Flathead County’s growth is more closely correlated to national growth than to Montana growth,” he observed, adding that’s generally because the Flathead has less agriculture and mining than other parts of the state.

“A lot of what’s happening is forces beyond our control.”

ONE OF THE forces having a big impact on the Flathead is the oil boom that’s lured a significant number of local workers to Western North Dakota and Eastern Montana.

When nearly everyone in the audience raised their hand when Eldredge asked who knew of someone working in the oil fields, he said “that’s actually the best data I have.” It’s been difficult to track hard numbers for the migration taking place.

For now, most people aren’t relocating to North Dakota permanently. That’s a good thing, he said.

“The oil boom will be a net benefit [to the Flathead] as long as households don’t relocate,” he said.

There are several unknowns that make it difficult to determine the oil boom’s impact locally, including how long the job creation will continue in the Bakken oil fields and whether North Dakota will discourage migration by putting a moratorium on more “man camp” housing complexes there.

“It’s complicated,” Eldredge said. “There’s not a good way to explain why we have 10 percent unemployment here when you can drive to North Dakota and get a job.”

Commuting costs, along with the costs of essentially having two households — one here and one there — are big factors in workers’ decisions to commit to North Dakota jobs.

Features editor Lynnette Hintze may be reached at 758-4421 or by email at lhintze@dailyinterlake.com.