Another active hurricane season expected

An active tropical storm and hurricane season may be just around the meteorological corner. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is based in Miami, is calling for a 'near normal' hurricane season.

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season began on Friday, June 1. Prior to that date, we'd already seen two named storms, Alberto and Beryl. The overall average since 1981 is 12 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes during an entire season, which ends on Nov. 30.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms, which will have winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. From that number, four to eight of them have the potential to become hurricanes with winds of 74 miles per hour or higher. Approximately one to three of those hurricanes are projected to be at least a Category 3 or higher. Colorado State predicts 15 named storms, two of which will become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season was above average in terms of the number of storms. During that year, there were 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes of a Category 3 or higher. The only hurricane to hit the U.S. coastline was Irene, which caused significant damage along the East Coast. Tropical Storm Lee led to record rainfall in the Northeast, a region that was already severely affected by Irene. Both storms combined caused $20 billion in damage.

The past two years, 2010 and 2011, were tied for the third most active Atlantic hurricane seasons with 19 named storms each. The other years that also had 19 named storms were in 1887 and 1996. The all-time record was 28 named storms, set in 2005, the year of the monster hurricane, Katrina.

Ocean temperatures off the coast of Africa, where many tropical storms develop, are near normal. Readings are slightly above average in the Gulf of Mexico. The combination of the warmer waters and not having a defined "El Nino," the warmer than normal sea-surface temperature event along the Equatorial regions, will likely lead to another active tropical storm and hurricane season. During El Nino years, we often see less hurricane formation as the wind shearing effects increase due to changes in upper-level wind flow patterns. However, if El Nino develops soon, then it could put a damper on the hurricane season late this summer. Only time will tell.

Randy Mann and I are predicting 15 to 18 named Atlantic/Caribbean tropical storms, approximately 7 to 10 storms that will become hurricanes. At least 3 to 4 of these hurricanes will reach Category 3 levels of intensity. Two should strike the U.S. mainland.

North Idaho weather outlook

Believe it or not, Dennis Williams of Hayden, the paint store owner, measured 6 inches of hail in his backyard this past Wednesday morning following a strong thunderstorm overnight.

According to Dennis, his place looked like a "war zone." Leaves by the thousands were stripped off his maple tree in the front yard clogging his icy driveway. The backyard garden was flattened by the marble-sized hail.

Large-sized hail and torrential downpours late Tuesday evening and early Wednesday were reported throughout North Idaho, but none matched the heavy accumulations seen in Hayden at Dennis' place.

Speaking of the Hayden area, the first 13 days of this June saw more than four inches of precipitation in town, a new record for the period.

Locally at my station on Player Drive in Coeur d'Alene, we gauged more than 3.5 inches of precipitation through Wednesday, likewise a new record. The previous mark for the first 13 days of June was 2.94 inches in 1974. Also, measurable rainfall occurred on 11 out of the first 13 days of June, breaking the previous mark of 10 wet days in 1964. More than two feet of rain has precipitated on Coeur d'Alene since Jan. 1, likewise a new record. Our normal precipitation since 1895 for an entire year is just 26.77 inches.

Heavy snows fell during the first two weeks of June in the mountains to the east of us, particularly in Glacier National Park in western Montana. The Going-to-the-Sun Road will likewise see a "significant delay" in its opening to the public due to the heavy dumps of the white stuff in recent days.

I should also mention that it's been very chilly lately across the Inland Northwest. Record low maximum readings of 45 degrees on June 6 and 46 degrees on June 9 were observed at my Player Drive station in the northwestern corner of Coeur d'Alene.

The 'good news' is that we're expecting less showers and more sunshine during the second half of June across our part of the country. The weather should be fairly nice for this year's Ironman events. There's only a slight chance of rain and afternoon temperatures should be seasonable.

Longer-term, Randy Mann and I are still expecting to see perhaps the hottest summer season since at least 2006. There should be lots of warm to hot 'Sholeh Days' at or above 90 degrees, especially from mid July through early September.

Thanks to a stubborn ridge of high pressure that is expected to 'camp out' over the Inland Northwest for several weeks, our total July through September precipitation locally should be less than 60 percent of normal, especially if we do see the arrival of a new warm and dry (for us) 'EL NINO' event in the warming Pacific Ocean waters. Stay tuned.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email [email protected]

Weekly Weather Almanac

• Week's warmest temperature: 78 degrees on June 16

• Week's coldest temperature: 42 degrees on June 15

• Weekly precipitation: 0.94 inches

• Precipitation month to date: 3.62 inches

• Normal precipitation month to date: 1.19 inches

• Precipitation month to date last year: 1.78 inches

• Precipitation year to date: 24.26 inches

• Normal precipitation year to date: 13.21 inches

• Precipitation last year to date: 21.53 inches

• Normal annual precipitation: 26.77 inches

• Total precipitation last year: 31.62 inches

• Precipitation predicted this year: 35.93 inches

• Precipitation predicted in 2013: 28.40 inches

• Record annual precipitation: 38.77 inches in 1996

• All-time least annual precipitation: 15.18 inches in 1929

Readings taken week ending Sunday, 3 p.m., June 17