Economists from the University of Montana’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research predict continued economic recovery this year in Flathead County and the rest of the state.

Experts in health care, travel, agriculture, manufacturing, real estate and energy presented generally positive statewide forecasts at the 38th annual economic outlook seminar Friday in Kalispell.

Bureau Director Patrick Barkey reported stronger economic growth at 2.7 percent, compared to 2 percent projected growth forecast last year by the bureau. Paul Polzin, bureau director emeritus, addressed trends in Flathead and other counties.

“In Gallatin County and Flathead County there has been a sizable recovery since the recession trough [in 2009],” Barkey said. ”But we have not yet gone back to the pre-recession peak.”

He said Flathead County showed growth in employment from the midpoint of 2011 through 2012. He said income showed an even better picture in the same period.

“As we go around the state and look at the various communities, we do see some growth in all the areas,” Polzin said. “You can see that definite upward trend in terms of both employment and real earnings here in Flathead County.”

Polzin said the health-care sector, including ambulatory services (clinics), hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities, grew 77 percent in Flathead County from 2001 to 2010. Both Flathead and Gallatin counties had rapid growth in spite of the recession.

Returning to other areas of the economy, he said the sale of Semitool to Applied Materials “has worked out very well,” but said the new owner has not added employees at the same rate as Semitool, calling it a “growth pause.”

“We’re forecasting a slight acceleration in growth in terms of Kalispell (Flathead) growth,” he said. “It is not back to where it was in pre-recession periods, but we’re looking at respectable growth at 2.5 to 3 percent. We’re looking at statewide growth of 3 percent.”

Polzin said those numbers were skewed by the very rapid growth in Eastern Montana and rural areas due to resource development.

Gregg Davis, health-care director with the bureau, returned to the seminar theme of changes coming in health care with many more people insured through a state insurance exchange. Davis said 195,000 Montanans now have no medical insurance, not including 26,000 with poor coverage policies.

He said a lot of the questions about the impact of the Affordable Care Act should be answered this year and next.

“In October, we’re all supposed to go to the exchange and start shopping for health care,” Davis said. “In 2014, the exchange is officially launched on Jan. 1.”

Davis said Montanans now have only one option, the Montana Health Co-op, in their exchange. He said other companies are expected to offer plans through the exchange including “the blues.”

Along with the uninsured, people who now have insurance through work may end up with exchange policies because it may save money for some employers. Davis placed the number of Montanans who may lose their employer-sponsored plan at between 21,000 and 45,000.

According to Davis, exchanges will offer various levels of coverage deemed gold, silver, etc. plans. He said the Office of Management and Budget projected a silver plan premium for a family of four at $12,000 to $15,000 a year.

“Notice the family’s responsibility,” he said. “It’s based on a percentage of income. Regardless of what that health insurance premium costs, your responsibility will be tied to a percentage of your income.”

The government picks up the rest. Davis referred people to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s subsidy calculator to determine how they may be impacted.

He said the Affordable Care Act’s heavy focus on primary care is one way the act could reverse or slow the rise in health-care costs through accountable-care organizations and patient-centered homes.

“All have a very heavy primary care focus and that’s what many states have focused on in deciding whether to expand Medicaid,” Davis said.

Some states have decided against expanding Medicaid because their medical services infrastructure can’t provide the new demand for services. A few areas of Montana, including the Flathead, have too few primary-care doctors to handle the expected demand.

His research shows the potential impact of newly insured in Flathead County at 28,252 more primary visits, with a shortfall of doctors to provide 5,023 of those visits.

“Flathead County is one of the few counties that is going to experience some problems expanding primary-care capacity,” he said.

Other health-care speakers included Dr. Craig Eddy, chief medical officer at Kalispell Regional Healthcare, and Larry White, director of the UM Western Montana Area Health Education Center.

Eddy urged Montanans to make sure the state ends up with health care that’s ‘provided by Montanans for Montanans and not health care that is dictated from other places.”  

White reviewed sweeping changes in health care and key decisions employers must make because of the Affordable Care Act, like whether to continue offering a plan or shift employees to purchase from the exchange.