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Quaking over a supervolcano

Jerry Hitchcock/Staff Writer | Hagadone News Network | UPDATED 11 years, 1 month AGO
by Jerry Hitchcock/Staff Writer
| April 11, 2014 9:00 PM

If you're like me, you've been to Yellowstone National Park on a number of occasions. You've seen Old Faithful erupt, toured the paint pots and smelled the sulphur omitted from the region to the point your senses adapted and the sheer beauty of the area trumped the stench.

My first time there was when I was barely in grade school. We drove up the Cooke City Highway, seesawing back and forth (at the time I thought we must have gotten halfway to the top of Mount Everest).

I remember the usual things about the area: The buffalo, the elk, the moose and the natural landscape that would not appear natural anywhere else.

But lately we've all been made aware that Yellowstone possesses the ability to lay destruction to areas far reaching.

The national park had a 4.8 magnitude earthquake on March 30, the strongest in the region since 1980.

Yellowstone sits atop a massive volcano (dubbed a supervolcano), and a full-blown eruption could be far worse than any natural disaster man has ever witnessed. Also, major earthquake faults are in the region.

To compare, the first eruption in this region 21 million years ago was apparently 25,000 times larger than the Mount St. Helens eruption. Two subsequent eruptions occurred 1.3 million and 640,000 years ago, and even though these events were smaller in nature, they are still thought to dwarf what would be considered a standard volcano eruption. Some scientists say we are long overdue for another "big one," while others aren't so sure.

Estimates on the destruction from a large eruption range from 87,000 to almost 100,000 lives lost.

According to seismologist Robert Smith of the University of Utah, the probability of another magnitude 7 or larger earthquake on a major Yellowstone fault is 0.125 percent in any given year. Smith also estimated the annual probability of a Yellowstone super-eruption at a much less likely 0.00014 percent.

That last bit of statistics should put your mind somewhat at ease if you were planning a Yellowstone trip for the family this summer. Basically, you have a 99 percent chance of a perfect vacation.

As they say, we all are gonna die of something. And your chances of dying of the following are greater at Yellowstone:

* A buffalo stampede through your West Yellowstone hotel room

* Sulphur asphyxiation

* Your whole family choking on pieces of the same pie in a Cooke City restaurant

* You dive headfirst off Upper Yellowstone Falls

* You bungee headfirst into a group of black bears with a T-bone steak around your neck

My whole point is that the above stuff has a very slim possibility of ever happening, so don't worry your pretty little head about an eruption/earthquake descimating your family.

But just the same, don't tempt a black bear with a T-Bone. Unless you're really good at bungeeing!

Jerry Hitchcock grew up midway between Yellowstone and Glacier National Parks, and yes, he knows the meaning of "God's Country." You can attempt to reach Jerry Hitchcock at 664-8176, Ext. 2017, or via email at jhitchcock@cdapress.com. Follow him on Twitter at HitchTheWriter.

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