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Ag markets flailed around with little net movement Friday morning

Doane Advisory Services | Hagadone News Network | UPDATED 10 years, 9 months AGO
by Doane Advisory Services
| August 15, 2014 8:30 AM

Corn futures began Friday on a firm note. The annual USDA report on farmer enrollment in subsidy programs was published early this morning. They enrolled 83.322 million acres of corn, with 1.54 million classified as ‘prevent planted.’ Nearby futures rose modestly in response, since the indicated acreage totals seemed surprisingly small. September corn gained 4.0 cents to $3.66/bushel around midsession Friday, while December climbed 4.5 to $3.78.

The soy complex is proving mixed once again. The early USDA data stated bean acreage enrolled in subsidy programs at 79.25 million acres, with 827,000 acres deemed as ‘prevent planted.’ As with corn, the total looks low, which apparently triggered early buying of CBOT bean and meal futures. Meanwhile, the bearish vegoil situation continues weighing on soybean oil futures. That seemingly dragged beans lower at midday. September soybean futures slid 1.75 cents to $10.965/bushel just before lunchtime Friday, while November futures sank 2.5 cents to $10.535. September soyoil dove 0.61 cents to 32.90 cents/pound, but September soymeal marched up $3.6 to $386.0/ton.

The wheat markets posted a strong Friday morning advance. The USDA-FSA report stated enrolled U.S. wheat acreage at 52.57 million acres, with 1.36 million defined as ‘prevent planted.’ Again, the participation rate seemed low. That supported futures, but the markets really seemed to take off after traders heard forecasts for fresh rainfall over Europe, since the moisture could further delay the E.U. harvest and do additional damage to their wheat. September CBOT wheat surged 9.25 cents to $5.465/bushel late Friday morning, while September KC wheat advanced 8.0 cents to $6.16/bushel, and September MWE wheat moved up 3.75 to $6.095.

Cattle futures seemingly lost direction this morning. Yesterday cattle futures bounced from early-week losses in reaction to news of emerging cash market stability. Deferred futures have sustained the bounce this morning, but the nearby contracts have turned lower. That may reflect concerns about third-quarter outlook. October live cattle futures slipped 0.10 cents to 147.25 in late Friday morning action, while December futures bounced 0.52 to 150.17 cents/pound. Meanwhile, September feeder futures leapt 0.95 cents to 214.00 cents/pound and November futures jumped 0.80 to 212.57.

CME hogs have turned decidedly mixed. Cash hog and wholesale pork weakness depressed CME futures Thursday morning, but Chicago prices rebounded later in the day. Futures followed through to the upside in overnight trading, but diverged as lunchtime loomed. Those shifts probably reflect disparate ideas about the outlook, but they may also be driven by pragmatic trader adjustments to the circumstances. October hogs dipped 0.15 cents to 95.10 cents/pound late Friday morning, while December climbed 0.75 cents to 88.50.

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ARTICLES BY DOANE ADVISORY SERVICES

Sliding soy meal futures took starch out of crop markets Tuesday
October 28, 2014 1:30 p.m.

Sliding soy meal futures took starch out of crop markets Tuesday

Corn futures set back in concert with soybeans. Soybeans and meal led the crop markets sharply higher Monday night and Tuesday morning, with bulls apparently banking on robust demand and slow harvests to power prices higher. However, the surge ran out of momentum and bullish profit-taking and fresh selling greatly reduced the gains. Corn did close slightly higher. December corn futures ended Tuesday having gained 1.5 cents to $3.645/bushel, while May added 1.25 to $3.8675.

Tuesday's early meal reversal weighed on crop markets
October 28, 2014 9 a.m.

Tuesday's early meal reversal weighed on crop markets

Talk of slow harvesting is again boosting corn futures. Soybeans and meal led the crop markets higher overnight, but have set back from their highs. However, that has done little to discourage corn bulls, who reportedly were encouraged by the persistently slow harvest. December corn futures climbed 4.75 cents to $3.6775/bushel late Monday morning, while May added 4.0 to $3.895.

Ag markets posted mixed closes ahead of Thursday's USDA reports
September 10, 2014 1:30 p.m.

Ag markets posted mixed closes ahead of Thursday's USDA reports

Traders were looking forward to Thursday’s USDA reports Wednesday. Expectations for a massive corn harvest have weighed heavily upon the market this summer. However, the possibility that tomorrow’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports will hold surprises apparently spurred short-covering ahead of their release. Thus, corn futures traded slightly higher. December corn futures closed up 1.5 cents to $3.4575/bushel Wednesday, while May rose 1.25 to $3.6675.