COEUR d'ALENE - No economic forecast is complete without black swan events and palpable creative destruction.

Not if you're listening to esteemed economist John W. Mitchell, anyway.

Mitchell, a former professor at Boise State University and chief economist with US Bank, spoke Tuesday to 100 Coeur d'Alene Chamber of Commerce supporters gathered at the Kroc Center to hear his talk called "Recovered, Challenged and Changed."

Over the course of two hours, he painted a fairly rosy picture of the coming year locally and nationally, with rising employment fueling all-important consumer spending assisted greatly by falling energy prices.

That's rosy barring a black swan event, of course.

"The international environment is very unsettled," Mitchell said, pointing to recession and economic contraction in parts of Europe and the Far East. "I keep asking myself, 'Is this the black swan?'"

Mitchell said the term comes from a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb called "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable."

"Everybody thought swans were white until some guys in Australia discovered black swans," he said. "So what you 'knew' about swans was wrong. A black swan event is a low-probability, high-impact retrospective-predictability event."

Put another way:

"Big impact at a low probability and then you go, 'Jeez, I should've seen that coming.'

While a black swan event like severe international economic contraction could take much of the steam out of America's steady growth, Mitchell points to a lot of positives that might keep unwanted birds at bay. Housing continues to improve, if somewhat unsteadily; state and local finances are on the upswing; net worth has rebounded for many Americans; and employment gains are nearly matched by the rise of real disposable income. To best determine our own future, Mitchell said, we'll need to capitalize on change.

"We're living through 'palpable creative destruction,'" Mitchell said. Then he explained.

He talked about the ability to order books via smartphone or computer rather than driving to a store to choose them.

"Great for me, great for UPS," he said. "Not so good for Borders or for Barnes & Noble."

He mentioned the "ubiquitous connectivity" that smart phones and their apps provide. Want to make some extra money? Rent out a room in your house, he suggested.

"Great for you, not so good if you're in the hotel business," he said.

Need a ride to the airport?

"Touch the [app] button and somebody shows up and takes you to the airport," he said. "Really neat and great for you. Not so good if you're in the cab business."

Ongoing disruption in business models presents challenges, he said, and tomorrow's economy will depend largely on how that change is embraced on a broad scale.

"Amazing things, but all these changes have winners and losers," he said. "It's not anything new. You know, the railroad replaced the canal and the stagecoach; telephone and telegraph; that sort of stuff. But as a society, how do you facilitate transitions? How do you help people change?

"How do you provide opportunity? That becomes critical."

John W. Mitchell

John Mitchell received his B.A. degree from Williams College and his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Oregon. He was a professor of economics at Boise State University for 13 years before joining U.S. Bancorp in July 1983. One of his students at BSU was current Coeur d'Alene Chamber CEO Steve Wilson.

Mitchell was chief economist of U.S. Bancorp for 25 years until July 1998, then served as economist for the western region until July 2007.