Weather patterns have been changing thanks, at least in part, to the warmer than normal sea-surface temperature phenomenon, El Nino. California has finally been receiving some much-needed rainfall and parts of the extreme northwestern U.S. have reported below normal snowfall totals. By contrast, Bend, Ore., located in the central part of the state, had received over 50 percent of their annual snowfall as of last week.

We've also seen very extreme weather develop across areas east of the Rockies. One of the biggest weather stories was Buffalo, N.Y., as that city picked up over 7 feet of snow last month. Some towns and cities near Buffalo actually received their entire seasonal snowfall in less than a week. Since then, much warmer temperatures have melted much of the white stuff creating areas of flooding.

Warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures continue to expand along the Equatorial regions. However, right along the South American coastline, where El Nino typically develops, ocean temperatures have cooled to near-normal. It's still early, but this could mean that El Nino may have peaked and will start weakening early next year.

Despite the warming, we still a weak warm water phenomenon, but it's still possible that it could strengthen over the next few weeks. Most computer models predict this El Nino to become more developed later this month and continue into early 2015.

If El Nino does expand, it usually means increased moisture for California to the southern Great Plains. California has seen increased rainfall, but the southern Great Plains are still drier than normal.

There is also a large region of warmer waters from Baja California to the Gulf of Alaska. Scientists say that these sea-surface temperatures are warmer than they have been in decades. This area of very warm water may also be at least partially responsible for the wide extremes across the country in November.

As mentioned earlier, the Inland Northwest often sees less snowfall than normal during the El Nino years. So far, we've seen much more rain than snow, including some freezing rain last Thursday night, which is also more typical of El Nino. But, even during this type of pattern, it is possible that our region could see brief periods of heavy snowfall at some point during the upcoming winter season. Despite the rainfall in the lower elevations, the mountain areas should see more snowfall than rain for a decent ski season.

OUR SUN IS SHOWING A RAPID DECLINE OF ACTIVITY

By Meteorologist Randy Mann

It's been about 70 months since this current 'maxima' Solar Cycle 24 began. Since late December 2008, we've seen moderate solar flares, but this cycle has been weaker since the last one in the late 1990s.

Some scientists say the sun's activity is in decline to the point we could be in another 'Maunder Minimum,' like the extended period of very low sunspot activity during the so-called 'Little Ice Age,' by 2025. Our forecast charts point to much warmer conditions starting in the 2030s.

During the Maunder Minimum, there were very few sunspots for decades. The sun normally goes through a maxima and minima cycle every 11 years. It's still a mystery as to why our sun went off that cycle from 1645 to 1715. During that time, rivers and canals froze across northern Europe. The Baltic Sea also froze. Crop failures were widespread across northern Europe.

Recent sunspot numbers have climbed in late November.

The highest level last week was 170 sunspots, a relatively high number. The latest figure has been near 150 sunspots. During the 1990s, when the Earth's temperature peaked, the sun was cranking out an average of over 200 sunspots per day. This particular "maxima" has averaged less than 100.

Our sun is expected to come out of this maxima phase early next year and start heading toward a minima cycle. By the last 2010s to early 2020s, there is the possibility of much heavier snowfalls across much of the northern U.S. that would be more severe than the big snow year in 2007-08. The very low sunspot activity, combined with a possible strong cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature pattern could lead to some very tough winters.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

By Climatologist Cliff Harris

We did see a bit of snow Thursday morning before the precipitation turned to a mixture of snow, freezing rain and rain by evening into early Friday.

This light snowfall, only the second one of this almost snowless winter of 2014-15 thus far, pushed our seasonal accumulation of the white stuff to two inches in town, only about 22 percent of the normal snowfall to Dec. 5 of 9.5 inches since 1895 in Coeur d'Alene.

Sub-freezing temperatures made the roadways "pretty slick," according to my wife Sharon, who does most of the driving around the area while I'm housebound working and watching our poodles, 'Sholeh' and 'Genny.' She's become a good driver in icy conditions.

As far as the expected weather patterns are concerned locally during the next 10 days or so, the warm EL NINO in the waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean will keep us mild and rainy for the most part with just a few light snow showers mixed-in at times.

The local ski resorts, however, will see mostly snow above 3,500 feet as temperatures hover in the upper 20s and low to mid 30s between now and Dec. 12.

I do see the chance of more snow, mostly light, arriving at the lower elevations below 2,500 feet by Dec. 14-18. This could increase our chances somewhat of a WHITE CHRISTMAS, but the odds of such a 'CAMELOT-LIKE OCCURRENCE' remain less than 50/50 on the valley floor, again thanks to the warm El Nino event in the eastern Pacific Ocean. As mentioned earlier, this will bring more much-needed rains to still drought-parched California despite the recent downpours.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com