State economists are bullish about where economic growth is headed in Montana, and Flathead County once again is a player in the projected growth.

“Flathead County probably will be the fastest-growing [county] in the western region” of Montana during 2014, said Paul Polzin, director emeritus of the University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research.

Polzin and Bureau Director Patrick Barkey led presentations at the annual Economic Outlook forum Friday in Kalispell. The bureau has traveled the state for nearly 40 years to deliver half-day seminars and make predictions about economic growth.

They predict growth of about 2.7 percent in Flathead County this year, but that’s still a little lower than the 3 percent growth projected statewide. That level of Flathead’s growth is projected to remain fairly constant through 2017.

Growth is expected to be slightly lower in Missoula County at 2.4 percent. Silver Bow and Deer Lodge counties are projected at 2 percent growth this year through 2017, while Yellowstone County should see 3.8 percent growth and Gallatin County 4 percent.

Eastern Montana remains the growth juggernaut, but the evolution of the Bakken oil boom is entering a cost-containment phase, Barkey said.

“The era of the high-school dropout making $100,000 a year is coming to an end,” he said.

After 2013 growth in Montana’s economy wound up lower than 2012, Barkey said the overriding question has been: “Is this the year for breakout growth?”

The answer seems to be yes, this may be the year.

“Declines in the Western Montana economy are over and metro areas west of the divide are again making a contribution to statewide growth,” Barkey said. “The vigorous oil-related growth in the east continues, but the big news in the 2014 outlook is that declines in the west are over.”

There has been a solid rebound in Flathead’s construction industry, but it’s not back to pre-recession levels, Polzin pointed out.

The improved United States economy has meant renewed growth in nonresident travel and better worldwide economic trends have improved conditions in high-tech manufacturing, he added.

Health care is equally solid here.

“Health care is now part of the economic base in Flathead County, with more people coming here for health care than going out,” Polzin said. “The emergence of Kalispell as a regional trade center has added an additional dimension to the local economic base. There ‘is evidence that more Canadians are crossing the boarder for elective medical treatment.”

Barkey said he believes 2014 will be a better year for the U.S. economy, and that western states like Montana will lead that growth. The West is closer to Asian markets, and that has been a benefit.

Employment remains a challenge in Montana because the state has a smaller share of jobs in the high-paying end of the spectrum, Barkey said. Montana has a disproportionately high number of jobs in lower-paying professions such as the accommodations and retail industries.

Features editor Lynnette Hintze may be reached at 758-4421 or by email at lhintze@dailyinterlake.com.