It's either a 'La Nada' or a weak 'El Nino' sea-surface temperature pattern

As of mid January, sea-surface temperatures near the West Coast of South America are right at normal levels. According to scientists at the Climate Prediction Center in the U.S., we are still in a La Nada, the in-between warmer El Nino and cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature event. However, there are scattered 'pockets' of cooler and warmer waters along the Equator which would support a La Nada event.

But, a recent article in Time Magazine states that we're in a very weak 'El Nino.' This is likely based on the much warmer sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska and east of New Zealand, along the International Date Line.

The Climate Prediction Center also states that we'll likely be in this La Nada pattern through the summer season. However, the latest computer models project that we'll be in at least a weak El Nino later in the spring season as ocean temperatures are expected to warm up along the Equator.

Low pressure systems will often form near regions of warmer waters. This may be one reason why we've seen these extreme weather patterns across the country as high pressure ridges will be enhanced to the east of the strong low pressure systems, like the one in the Gulf of Alaska. As a strong low pressure system forms in that area, a strong high pressure is enhanced east of the area, like the one that has been locked in over the western U.S.

Thanks to that strong high pressure ridge, California and the Desert Southwest are going through one of the driest periods on record over the central and southern portions of the Golden State. Major cutbacks of water supplies to farmers will occur if moisture does not increase in the Golden State very soon. Family members in California state that wells are completely dry and large lakes now look like ponds. The lack of water has become a major concern to state officials.

If we stay in a La Nada or a weak El Nino sea-surface temperature cycle, there is still a good chance for more colder and snowier weather across the northern U.S., especially east of the Rockies. Longer-range computer models do indicate the western high pressure ridge should start to weaken by the "new moon" cycle of Jan. 30 which would bring much desperately needed moisture into California and increase the chances of snowfall here in the Inland Northwest.

SOLAR STORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH

By Meteorologist Randy Mann

Our sun continues to be in it's "maxima" phase, which occurs every 11 years. Since early October, solar storms have been averaging above 100. The most recent figures are now slightly less than 100. This is down from the 245 figure on Jan. 6. The highest number of solar storms from this recent cycle occurred on Nov. 17 with a whopping 282.

This active sun has also been sending solar flares toward Earth. Our magnetic field protects our planet from the harmful radiation from these eruptions. A massive flare was detected last week and we may see additional eruptions from our sun in the coming months.

During the late 1990s, the sun was averaging about 200 solar storms per day when global temperatures were rising. Despite the recent activity, this new solar cycle is not as strong as the one in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

The sun should begin moving toward a trend of lower solar storms by the spring season. If the number of sunspots lowers to the 50s and 60s by the mid portion of 2014, then it's quite possible that we could see another round of few, if any, sunspots later next year when our sun heads toward its new 'minima' cycle. Remember, we had the record snows during the last solar 'minima' combined with a strong La Nina. It's quite possible we could see a repeat of that pattern several years down the meteorological roadway.

By the way, many solar scientists predict that the new 'minima' cycle is expected to peak, or be at its lowest, around the early 2020s. Assuming this occurs, the decreased sunspot activity may bring Earth's temperature down a bit from the current levels.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

By Climatologist Cliff Harris

As I told staff writer Maureen Dolan this past Monday afternoon, we should blame a huge El-Nino-enhanced high pressure ridge in the eastern waters of the Pacific Ocean for our 'snow drought,' especially at the lower elevations below 2,500 feet this mild winter of 2013-14. Temperatures have recently been 10 degrees above normal.

This winter has been very similar to the mild winter of 2009-10, when we gauged just 18.4 inches of the white stuff the entire season from July 1 through June 30. I was only plowed out once in December 2009 that open winter compared to twice this winter of 2013-14. Also, our ski conditions are much better this winter than four seasons ago thanks to a bit more moisture.

In late December, I reduced Coeur d'Alene's projected 2013-14 snowfall approximately 20 inches from our 118-year normal since 1895 of 69.8 inches. As I told Maureen, I probably should have cut the seasonal snowfall 'in half,' down to around 35 inches.

But, if the huge high pressure ridge does finally 'break down' by late January or early February, we could see healthy amounts of snow during the second half of winter and during the early spring period into the month of April, especially above 2,800 feet. Once again, only time will tell.

Looking farther down the meteorological roadway, I see a very snowy and cold winter season arriving sometime between 2015 and 2018 after our current peak in sunspot (solar) activity when we will likely also observe a much colder 'La Nina' sea-surface temperature event in the tepid waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean.

But, in the meantime, we should be glad that we're not suffering from the record harsh winter in Chicago and elsewhere east of the Rockies. Besides, our heating costs are hundreds, even thousands, of dollars less in the mild West. There's always something to be thankful for in our beautiful 'Camelot.'

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email [email protected]