Employment in the Flathead Valley is expected to grow by 2.7 percent this year, a local economist told business leaders in Kalispell on Wednesday.

Brad Eldredge, director of institutional research, assessment and planning at Flathead Valley Community College, delivered his annual predictions as part of Montana West Economic Development’s annual Flathead Economic Forecast.

Last year Flathead County’s labor market showed marked improvement. Eldredge had estimated a 2 percent increase in job growth for 2013, but Flathead ended the year with 3 percent growth.

The Flathead outperformed the rest of Montana in wage and job growth, he said, noting the state’s 1.4 percent growth.

“We’re one of the stars of the Montana economy for a change,” Eldredge said.

The “big five” in terms of local industries seeing the most growth are health care and social services, construction, retail trade, food service/accommodations, and manufacturing.

Health care “is the unstoppable juggernaut,” he said, adding well over 200 jobs last year.

Local manufacturers also have seen promising growth, adding more than 100 jobs from mid-2012 to mid-2013.

The construction industry, still gaining ground from the economic downturn, is expected to show double-digit increases in employment this year. About 325 jobs were added to the local construction work force from mid-2012 to mid-2013. 

“Confidence is increasing and that bodes well” for the local economy, Eldredge said.

Local industries that lost jobs included agriculture and forestry, transportation, public administration and administrative services.

Temporary employment agencies fall under administrative services, and a reduction in the number of jobs connected with “temp” agencies actually is a good sign for the economy, he said, because local businesses are more confident in hiring permanent employees.

The information industry, which largely includes newspapers, television and radio stations, lost the most ground locally, showing nearly a 20 percent decrease in employment from the third quarter of 2012 to the third quarter of 2013.

As private-sector employment has strengthened, the number of government jobs has decreased, bringing it in line to pre-recession levels. In 2012, the private sector accounted for 87.6 percent of all jobs in Flathead County.

Private-sector employment is tallied by the number of jobs, not the number of workers. If someone has two part-time private-sector jobs, that counts as two jobs in state statistics, Eldredge explained.

An exception to the decrease in the number of Flathead’s government jobs is in education as schools make staff additions that had been stymied by the recession.

The local recovery of the real estate market, Canadian prosperity and Congress’ agreement over a budget are reasons for optimism, Eldredge said.

On the flip side, there are some risks hovering over the economy. Those include the Federal Reserve “taking its foot off the gas pedal in keeping [long-term] interest rates artificially low” and the uncertainty of the effects of the Affordable Care Act on employers, he said.

Features editor Lynnette Hintze may be reached at 758-4421 or by email at lhintze@dailyinterlake.com.