WASHINGTON (AP) — Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California appears likely to win election as House majority leader on Thursday when Republicans vote in the wake of Eric Cantor’s surprising primary defeat, but an unpredictable, contest to select a new party whip may tell more about the House GOP’s future.

Reps. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, Peter Roskam of Illinois and Marlin Stutzman of Indiana vied for the whip’s job in a race that several lawmakers said would turn on geographical, personal and ideological factors in a party where cohesiveness is often elusive.

Yet not even victory in Thursday’s election was assurance of a long lease on office inside the leadership.

The rank and file will reconvene after mid-term elections in the fall, and first-term Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., predicted that when it does, “I don’t think anybody will be uncontested.”

This week’s elections themselves were a reminder of the turmoil within the party. Cantor, the current majority leader, unexpectedly lost a primary last week to tea party-backed David Brat, an economics professor and political newcomer, and announced he would step down from his leadership post on July 30.

That cleared the way for hurry-up leadership elections only a few months before the fall campaign with control of Congress at stake.

Numerous lawmakers and aides said McCarthy, the current whip, was well-positioned to move up a step into Cantor’s current job, despite a late challenge from Rep. Raul Labrador of Idaho.

Making his case behind closed doors, Labrador told fellow Republicans during the day that if they supported the status quo — meaning McCarthy — “you will prove that we are still not listening” to the public. “We will break our pledge and with that we may lose the ability to regain control of the Senate and eventually win the presidency.”