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Surging soy, U.S. dollar quotes highlight Friday futures trading

Doane Advisory Services | Hagadone News Network | UPDATED 10 years, 8 months AGO
by Doane Advisory Services
| October 31, 2014 1:30 PM

Resurgent soybeans pulled corn higher Friday. Prospects for good early-November harvest weather and today’s big U.S. dollar jump pushed corn futures lower around midsession Friday. However, talk of extreme short-term tightness apparently powered the soy complex higher once again, which then pulled corn upward as well. December corn futures closed up 2.75 cents at $3.7675/bushel Friday, while May added 2.25 to $3.98.

Talk of tight meal conditions sparked broad soy gains. Soybean and product futures seemed to lose their upward momentum this morning, particularly as the U.S. dollar soared to its highest level since June 2010. However, persistent talk of ongoing meal shortages seemed to spark a fresh buying surge, which sent the whole complex higher at the close. November soybean futures soared 22.25 cents to $10.465/bushel at their Friday settlement, while December soyoil ran up 0.49 cents to 34.80 cents/pound, and December soymeal surged $9.0 to $389.0/ton.

Wheat futures couldn’t climb back above unchanged levels. Early wire service reports indicated Russian wheat is once again entering the glutted global market after several weeks of absence. That news, along with the U.S. dollar rally, weighed heavily upon wheat futures at midday. Prices bounced somewhat as the soy complex surged, but golden grain prices ended the week rather poorly. December CBOT wheat sank 3.5 cents to $5.325/bushel late Friday afternoon, while December KC wheat dove 8.25 to $5.9375/bushel, and December MWE wheat declined 3.5 to $5.7425.

Cash weakness weighed on cattle futures. The cattle market seemed likely to end the week firmly, but bulls apparently threw in the towel when word from the country markets indicated cash slippage. For example, Kansas cattle reportedly traded $2 lower at $168/cwt. Given that news, the poor CME close wasn’t surprising. December live cattle futures ended Friday having plunged 1.27 cents to 166.05 cents/pound, while April futures dropped 0.57 to 165.60. Meanwhile, November feeder cattle futures slid 0.07 cents to 234.15 cents/pound, and January feeders stalled at 228.47.

Talk of stable cash prices may have encouraged hog bulls. Cash hog prices were called steady Friday morning, although the midsession quotes weren’t available. The implied firmness despite surging supplies and lower pork prices probably encouraged bullish CME traders. December hog futures jumped 0.82 cents to 88.02 cents/pound at Friday’s CME close, while April hogs leapt 1.10 to 89.15.

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ARTICLES BY DOANE ADVISORY SERVICES

Sliding soy meal futures took starch out of crop markets Tuesday
October 28, 2014 1:30 p.m.

Sliding soy meal futures took starch out of crop markets Tuesday

Corn futures set back in concert with soybeans. Soybeans and meal led the crop markets sharply higher Monday night and Tuesday morning, with bulls apparently banking on robust demand and slow harvests to power prices higher. However, the surge ran out of momentum and bullish profit-taking and fresh selling greatly reduced the gains. Corn did close slightly higher. December corn futures ended Tuesday having gained 1.5 cents to $3.645/bushel, while May added 1.25 to $3.8675.

Tuesday's early meal reversal weighed on crop markets
October 28, 2014 9 a.m.

Tuesday's early meal reversal weighed on crop markets

Talk of slow harvesting is again boosting corn futures. Soybeans and meal led the crop markets higher overnight, but have set back from their highs. However, that has done little to discourage corn bulls, who reportedly were encouraged by the persistently slow harvest. December corn futures climbed 4.75 cents to $3.6775/bushel late Monday morning, while May added 4.0 to $3.895.

Ag markets posted mixed closes ahead of Thursday's USDA reports
September 10, 2014 1:30 p.m.

Ag markets posted mixed closes ahead of Thursday's USDA reports

Traders were looking forward to Thursday’s USDA reports Wednesday. Expectations for a massive corn harvest have weighed heavily upon the market this summer. However, the possibility that tomorrow’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports will hold surprises apparently spurred short-covering ahead of their release. Thus, corn futures traded slightly higher. December corn futures closed up 1.5 cents to $3.4575/bushel Wednesday, while May rose 1.25 to $3.6675.