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Ag markets ended Monday mostly higher

Doane Advisory Services | Hagadone News Network | UPDATED 10 years, 7 months AGO
by Doane Advisory Services
| September 29, 2014 2:02 PM

Grain traders were probably squaring positions Monday. The corn market has recently suffered badly from prospects for a huge U.S. harvest and from U.S. dollar strength. Today’s Export Inspections result also looked rather bearish. Nevertheless, futures rose modestly today, which probably reflected widespread short-covering ahead of tomorrow’s quarterly Grain Stocks report. December corn futures gained 2.75 cents to $3.2575/bushel in late Monday action, while May bounced 2.75 to $3.47.

The Export Inspections report seemingly encouraged soy complex bulls. Soybean and meal futures declined Sunday night, but rebounded from early lows this morning. The reason for the early bounce isn’t clear, but bullish traders were probably encouraged by strong results on the USDA Export Inspections report. Widespread position squaring prior to Tuesday’s stocks report likely played a bullish role as well. November soybean futures surged 13.25 cents to $9.235/bushel at their Monday settlement, while October soyoil jumped 0.87 cents to 32.79 cents/pound, and October soymeal edged up $0.9 to $308.1/ton.

Wheat futures turned upward as well. Grain industry participants were almost surely squaring positions in the wheat markets today, since Tuesday’s Small Grains Summary and Grain Stocks reports could have major implications for the outlook. News of a sizeable Taiwanese tender for U.S. wheat probably encouraged buying. December CBOT wheat closed up 7.0 cents to $4.8125/bushel Monday afternoon, while December KC wheat rose 2.75 cents to $5.665/bushel, and December MWE wheat added 6.0 to $5.3925.

Cash strength likely boosted cattle futures. As we suspected, beef packers raised their country bids last Friday and paid $1 more (to $158/cwt) for a few Nebraska cattle late that day. That news almost surely powered the gains seen at the CME Monday. However, the lack of Southern Plains activity may bode ill for the intermediate-term outlook. October live cattle futures leapt 2.50 cents to 160.95 cents/pound as the CME pit session ended Monday, while December futures soared 2.37 to 164.47. Meanwhile, October feeder futures jumped 1.55 cents to 234.65 cents/pound and January spiked 2.45 to 228.62.

Hog futures rebounded from report-driven lows. Last Friday’s quarterly USDA Hogs & Pigs report held generally bearish implications beyond the short run, thereby sparking big losses on today’s opening. However, today’s wholesale firmness seemed to persuade traders that the outlook is better than suggested by the supply data. October hogs bounced 0.80 cents to 107.32 cents/pound in late Monday trading, while December gained 0.37 to 94.85.

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ARTICLES BY DOANE ADVISORY SERVICES

Sliding soy meal futures took starch out of crop markets Tuesday
October 28, 2014 1:30 p.m.

Sliding soy meal futures took starch out of crop markets Tuesday

Corn futures set back in concert with soybeans. Soybeans and meal led the crop markets sharply higher Monday night and Tuesday morning, with bulls apparently banking on robust demand and slow harvests to power prices higher. However, the surge ran out of momentum and bullish profit-taking and fresh selling greatly reduced the gains. Corn did close slightly higher. December corn futures ended Tuesday having gained 1.5 cents to $3.645/bushel, while May added 1.25 to $3.8675.

Tuesday's early meal reversal weighed on crop markets
October 28, 2014 9 a.m.

Tuesday's early meal reversal weighed on crop markets

Talk of slow harvesting is again boosting corn futures. Soybeans and meal led the crop markets higher overnight, but have set back from their highs. However, that has done little to discourage corn bulls, who reportedly were encouraged by the persistently slow harvest. December corn futures climbed 4.75 cents to $3.6775/bushel late Monday morning, while May added 4.0 to $3.895.

Ag markets posted mixed closes ahead of Thursday's USDA reports
September 10, 2014 1:30 p.m.

Ag markets posted mixed closes ahead of Thursday's USDA reports

Traders were looking forward to Thursday’s USDA reports Wednesday. Expectations for a massive corn harvest have weighed heavily upon the market this summer. However, the possibility that tomorrow’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports will hold surprises apparently spurred short-covering ahead of their release. Thus, corn futures traded slightly higher. December corn futures closed up 1.5 cents to $3.4575/bushel Wednesday, while May rose 1.25 to $3.6675.