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Report: GOP historically strong

Jeff Selle | Hagadone News Network | UPDATED 10 years, 3 months AGO
by Jeff Selle
| January 18, 2015 8:00 PM

COEUR d'ALENE - For the first time since the 1920s, Republicans now dominate a majority of the statehouses nationwide, according to a recent report for the Pew Charitable Trust.

"This is news for a lot of the country," said Dr. Gary Moncrief, a professor of political science at Boise State University. "But this is not really news for Idaho or the Rocky Mountain states, for that matter."

Moncrief, who has published several books on state politics, said the Rocky Mountain region has been predominantly Republican for at least a generation. In Idaho, Democrats haven't held a majority in the Legislature since 1964.

Last November, the GOP won control of the governor's offices in 31 states and the legislatures in 30. That's up from 29 governorships and 27 legislatures in 2014.

In 23 states, Republicans now control both the governor's office and the legislature, according to Pew.

But the GOP's election inroads also resulted in more states where one party holds the governor's office and the other controls the legislature.

Before the election, only 11 states had split government - now 20 do. In those states, divided government may prevent either party from enacting its wish list.

But in even the reddest states, that won't automatically mean lower taxes, spending cuts and a hard line against Medicaid expansion.

"I think it will be different for every state," Moncrief said, adding that some Republican-dominated states like Kansas are realizing serious budget shortfalls, while others like Texas have surplus revenue.

He puts Idaho right in the middle as a state that is slowly emerging from the recent recession.

According to the Pew report, even in states with Republican governors and larger GOP legislative majorities, like Idaho, revenue shortfalls may put a damper on the fervor for tax cuts, particularly in states that have already made deep cuts in the last three or four years.

That is already beginning to play out in the first week of Idaho's 2015 legislative session.

Early last week the chairman of the Senate Tax Committee, Sen. Jeff Siddoway, R-Terreton, made his priorities clear on Gov. Butch Otter's proposed tax cuts.

"Quite frankly, we saw those same proposals last year as far as tax cuts," Siddoway told the Spokesman-Review after Otter's State of the State address. "But I'm dead serious about fixing education ... then we'll be able to see if there's going to be enough revenue left over to do any tax reductions. I'm pretty skeptical."

Nearly every state is grappling with how to pay for road and bridge repairs, the Pew Report said, which might mean hikes in gasoline, sales or other taxes. Many states face greater demands to fund education, with some having court orders to do so.

Otter clearly made those two issues part of his legislative agenda this year, calling transportation funding the "elephant in the room."

"The biggest of the big-ticket items in our infrastructure inventory is our long-term, multibillion-dollar investment in Idaho's roads and bridges," he said. "And if 'Idaho Learns' means anything at all, it's time for us to address that elephant in the room."

But transportation still takes a back seat to education funding on the governor's legislative agenda.

"Ladies and gentlemen, we know that after education, investing in infrastructure is among the smartest, most cost-effective and frankly essential uses of taxpayer dollars to promote the public's general welfare and sustain economic growth," Otter said.

He stopped short of calling for an increase in the gas tax, but made it clear he would like to see legislation that would provide sustainable funding for transportation projects.

"Chairmen Brackett and Palmer, legislative leaders, I am not going to stand here and tell you how to swallow this elephant," Otter wrote in his speech. "But we all know it must be done. I welcome financially responsible legislation that addresses steady, ongoing and sustainable transportation infrastructure in Idaho; however, I will not entertain proposals aimed at competing for general fund tax dollars with education and our other required public programs or services."

The Pew study says another dynamic is also playing out in the Republican-dominated states. Disputes among various GOP factions - tea partiers, libertarians, social-issue activists and pro-business conservatives - will further complicate matters.

While Moncrief said the tea party has been influential in the Idaho Legislature in the past, he sees that power waning.

"There is no doubt that most of the tea party delegation out there is from North Idaho - particularly Kootenai County," Moncrief said. "But statewide the tea party influence is not as dominant as it was two years ago."

The Pew report said despite those obstacles, Republicans undoubtedly will use their increased power to advance core GOP interests.

Moncrief agreed that issues central to the conservative agenda, such as abortion, guns, right-to-work laws, welfare limits and school vouchers, will emerge or re-emerge in states where Republicans feel emboldened by big majorities.

That will be the case more so in the states where the Republicans recently took control.

"There is this sense of finally we have the power, and we have to do something," Moncrief said, adding that other states may pursue some not-so-Republican policies.

In fact, the Pew report says that four Republican governors - from Tennessee, Wyoming, Indiana and Alabama - have mentioned an interest in expanding Medicaid to obtain the millions of federal dollars available through the Affordable Care Act.

As for the red tide sweeping all the way into the 2016 presidential race, Moncrief said it is way too early to speculate on that.

"If you think back to 2008, the media declared the Republican Party was dead and the Democrats are the new party," he said. "Now they are saying the Democratic Party is dead.

"Neither is true. Both of the parties have a way of building themselves back up."

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