The 2015 wine grape growing season is still very young, and as we always say this early in our vintage preview, much can transpire between now and harvest. Despite this early look, though, there have already been some surprises - especially when we look to the south to the appellations in California. With our recent talks with winemakers in Napa and along the central coast, and our regular contacts with growers and winemakers, here is what we know so far.

lose to home in the vineyards of the Northwest including the growing areas of Oregon, Washington and Idaho it has been consistently warm and dry. Harvest is widely expected to be early, with no late frosts or damaging thunderstorms to upset the bud break or set. However, the crop will likely not be as large as the previously big years of 2012, '13 and '14.

The limitations in grape tonnage are due to events last fall. In Idaho and Washington the fast, early and hard freezes that hit the region last November damaged a lot of vineyard land, killing vines and resulting in replanting or at a minimum regrafting. It will take the new vines a full three years before they again bear fruit suitable for making wine so expect the next few vintages to be smaller.

The quality of fruit here in the Northwest will likely be good depending on a few factors. If the summer stays warm and dry (but not too hot), harvest should be early as predicted, and the crop should be of high quality. But too much heat is not good, either. In long stretches of plus-95 degree highs vines will begin to shut down, delaying verasion and ripening. With a heavy fire season predicted, smoke damage also looms as a threat.

The forecast for California was similar until recently. Spring was early and warm in most of the grape producing areas, then things changed a bit. While there have still been some warm to hot spells, there have also been some pretty drastic cool downs. In our recent talks with Dan Karlsen at Talbott, he spoke of the early part of the growing season as being quite cool and damp. They are already treating for mildew in the vineyards, and Dan went on to describe another phenomenon that we were previously unaware of. During flowering, rain can cause flowers to collapse inward on themselves. The resulting grapes develop without seeds! The individual berries therefore are much smaller, as they do not need to accommodate the seed. While this reduces the tonnage yield, and the berries and bundles affected will yield slightly less juice, the grapes are still usable in wine production and flavors are not affected.

Similarly around the state there has been sporadic rainfall, very unusual once we make it to June. It has not been heavy enough to break the well-publicized drought, but combined with some cooler-than-normal temperatures, it has altered the expectations for the harvest and overall vintage a bit. Grape growers prefer long, warm and dry growing seasons, and this very cool and uneven season so far has more than a couple of folks we talk to regularly feeling some stress about the coming months. Combined with the risk of a full blown "El Nino" going into the fall and winter, producers now are focusing on getting harvest and crush done and finished as early as originally hoped for.

There has also been fairly persistent fog along San Pablo Bay in the Carneros region, as well as around Monterey and in the Russian River Valley. While the fog provides the daily temperature range needed to develop the flavor profile winemakers crave, too much of a good thing can add to the angst when the season has seen cool snaps and uneven weather.

Like most places, weather can change quickly in the appellations of the west. We will no doubt alternatively go through hand wringing and exaltation several times between now and harvest. So far, though, the Northwest is looking good and California a bit less so. It is early in the season, however, so stay tuned for updates as we march steadily towards the time to pick grapes.

If there is a topic you would like to read about, or if you have questions on wine, you can email George@thedinnerpartyshop.com, or make suggestions by contacting the Healthy Community section at the Coeur d'Alene Press.

George Balling is co-owner (with his wife Mary Lancaster) of the dinner party, a wine and tabletop decor shop by Costco in Coeur d'Alene. George has also worked as a judge in many wine competitions, and his articles are published around the country. You can learn more about the dinner party at www.thedinnerpartyshop.com. You can get all of these articles and other great wine tips by friending us on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/#!/dinnerpartyshop.