When the first round of the NFL draft kicks off Thursday, there’s an almost certainty that quarterbacks will be taken with the top two picks.

The Los Angeles Rams (still not used to that) traded four picks in this year’s draft and two in next year’s to the Tennessee Titans for the first overall pick. The Rams have already stated they’ll be picking a quarterback at the spot after playing with a series of well-disguised mannequins at the position since releasing Kurt Warner in 2004.

The second pick also became clear when the Philadelphia Eagles traded five picks over the next three drafts to the Cleveland Browns for the No. 2 overall pick. The Eagles made the plunge after a regime change and realizing that they too were employing one of the Rams’ previously-used mannequins.

If the top two picks are quarterbacks, it will mark a snowballing trend in the NFL. This year would be the third time in five years that the top two picks were used on signal callers.

Since Peyton Manning and Great Falls’ Ryan Leaf were drafted with the top two picks in 1998, quarterbacks have been taken 1-2 five times in 19 years.

For context, it happened just twice in 28 years beforehand, first occuring when, fittingly, Archie Manning was taken a pick after Jim Plunkett in 1971.

But why the rush?

Sure, Peyton Manning showed that a great quarterback can lift a franchise to championship contention all by himself, but there aren’t that many Peyton Mannings available.

There are 32 teams in the league and at any given time only about five quarterbacks that can be trusted to will an inferior team to a championship.

In fact, since Peyton was drafted, there have been 48 other quarterbacks taken in the first round. Only 18 of those have made a Pro Bowl, including on the expanded rosters the last few seasons. Only four others have won a Super Bowl.

Only one of those quarterbacks was drafted No. 1 overall. That was Peyton’s younger brother, Eli.

The only other top two picks to even get to a Super Bowl in that era are Cam Newton this year and Donovan McNabb in 2004.

So, in the rush to find the next Peyton Manning, teams not drafting antoher Manning have had a 36 percent success rate of even finding a one-season Pro Bowler and a 6 percent success rate on finding a Super Bowl champion in the first round.

When does the bubble burst?

With so small of a chance of finding anything but a competent starter, why are so many teams still trying to find Peyton Manning? Why are so many fans urging their teams to fit a square peg into a round hole?

Why not instead build a team that can exist with only a slightly above average quarterback?

There are plenty of those available, found in every round of the draft and with plenty still bouncing around the league.

Denver won the Super Bowl last season with Peyton Manning playing at the level of an average quarterback and Carolina made the final game with an 17-1 record by running the ball more times than they threw. Seattle has built a dynasty over the past few seasons by relying heavily on the rush and leaning back on its defense. The Patriots built the best franchise in the league, in part, on the work of a defensive mastermind and his ability to make other teams uncomfortable.

Even during the offensive explosion of the Peyton Manning era, and its insistence on good quarterback play, it’s still largely been the teams with the best defenses that have won championships.

Let’s be clear, I’m not saying don’t draft a quarterback ever. Quarterbacks are, and have always been, one of the most important positions on the field. They’re also the hardest to find.

Stop waiting for Superman. He’s not coming to save the day.

Use those picks given to you for your previous ineptitude to let the built-in parity of the NFL work for you. Build a full team instead of hoping a magic quarterback will fix every problem.

With Peyton Manning retired, it’s possible the first two picks of this weekend’s draft will start a new era of only successful, prosperous quarterbacks taken in the first round.

It’s more likely that another team will build a championship run on those hopes and dreams.