Northwest Montana could see dramatic impacts from the Clean Power Plan if a challenge to the federal pollution regulations ultimately fails, University of Montana economics professor Patrick Barkey said on Thursday.

Released by the Environmental Protection Agency last year, the plan creates a framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. It got put on hold Tuesday, however, when the U.S. Supreme Court halted enforcement of the plan until a lawsuit filed by 27 states is resolved.

Still, Barkey said during a Thursday presentation to the Kalispell Chamber of Commerce that if the plan is enacted, ripple effects from the fossil fuel-reliant eastern part of the state will be felt farther west.

Montana would have to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 47 percent by 2030 — the largest cut of any state. Barkey’s study is founded on the premise that compliance will require shuttering all four generating stations at Colstrip’s massive coal-fired power plant.

Officials with NorthWestern Energy, which commissioned the study and sponsored the Thursday luncheon, agreed. The utility company owns a 30 percent share of one of Colstrip’s four units and about 10 percent of the overall plant.

Rick Burt, NorthWestern’s director of community relations, called the plant’s closure “a very reasonable expectation” if the plan is enacted, but stopped short of saying it was a certainty.

Critics of the study have said it fails to consider other options, such as increasing energy efficiency and the state’s wind and solar capacity. Barkey said he looked at other scenarios and they just weren’t feasible.

“We couldn’t come up with any economic way of building up the wind and solar supply to what is lost at Colstrip,” he said.

He found that if the plant shuts down, seven counties in Northwest Montana could lose nearly 1,000 jobs and face a range of other impacts to the region’s economy and population.

“It’s the effect of higher electricity prices affecting investments,” Barkey said, adding that while the region’s plentiful hydroelectric energy is cheaper, producers will simply raise prices in response to lower regional supply.

Barkey didn’t have specifics on where the regional job losses would come from but said the impacts would be spread throughout multiple sectors.

Statewide, close to half of an estimated 7,150 job losses would come from construction and state and local government, the report found. The health care, retail and accommodation and food services industries would also see substantial losses.

Barkey predicted manufacturing could also take a hit.

“When electricity prices go up, energy-intensive industries will leave,” he said.

Barkey’s report estimated more than 10,000 people would leave Montana as a result of the economic impact — further lowering tax revenues and demand for state and local government services.

“When people move for economic opportunity, they tend to be younger,” he added.

The decline of the state’s coal industry itself, he said, would have significant impacts on government funds. Four different taxes on coal help prop up the state’s budget — most notably the coal severance tax, which has yielded $2.1 billion for state coffers in the past four decades.

Flathead County gets the fifth-largest payout from coal royalties through the Treasure State Endowment program, which awards grants to governments and special districts to fund infrastructure projects. In all, the county has gotten about $7.7 million since 1999.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

Reporter Sam Wilson can be reached at 758-4407 or by email at [email protected].

Impacts would be felt in NW Montana

By SAM WILSON

Daily Inter Lake

Northwest Montana could see dramatic impacts from the Clean Power Plan if a challenge to the federal pollution regulations ultimately fails, University of Montana economics professor Patrick Barkey said on Thursday.

Released by the Environmental Protection Agency last year, the plan creates a framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. It got put on hold Tuesday, however, when the U.S. Supreme Court halted enforcement of the plan until a lawsuit filed by 27 states is resolved.

Still, Barkey said during a Thursday presentation to the Kalispell Chamber of Commerce that if the plan is enacted, ripple effects from the fossil fuel-reliant eastern part of the state will be felt farther west.

Montana would have to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 47 percent by 2030 — the largest cut of any state. Barkey’s study is founded on the premise that compliance will require shuttering all four generating stations at Colstrip’s massive coal-fired power plant.

Officials with NorthWestern Energy, which commissioned the study and sponsored the Thursday luncheon, agreed. The utility company owns a 30 percent share of one of Colstrip’s four units and about 10 percent of the overall plant.

Rick Burt, NorthWestern’s director of community relations, called the plant’s closure “a very reasonable expectation” if the plan is enacted, but stopped short of saying it was a certainty.

Critics of the study have said it fails to consider other options, such as increasing energy efficiency and the state’s wind and solar capacity. Barkey said he looked at other scenarios and they just weren’t feasible.

“We couldn’t come up with any economic way of building up the wind and solar supply to what is lost at Colstrip,” he said.

He found that if the plant shuts down, seven counties in Northwest Montana could lose nearly 1,000 jobs and face a range of other impacts to the region’s economy and population.

“It’s the effect of higher electricity prices affecting investments,” Barkey said, adding that while the region’s plentiful hydroelectric energy is cheaper, producers will simply raise prices in response to lower regional supply.

Barkey didn’t have specifics on where the regional job losses would come from but said the impacts would be spread throughout multiple sectors.

Statewide, close to half of an estimated 7,150 job losses would come from construction and state and local government, the report found. The health care, retail and accommodation and food services industries would also see substantial losses.

Barkey predicted manufacturing could also take a hit.

“When electricity prices go up, energy-intensive industries will leave,” he said.

Barkey’s report estimated more than 10,000 people would leave Montana as a result of the economic impact — further lowering tax revenues and demand for state and local government services.

“When people move for economic opportunity, they tend to be younger,” he added.

The decline of the state’s coal industry itself, he said, would have significant impacts on government funds. Four different taxes on coal help prop up the state’s budget — most notably the coal severance tax, which has yielded $2.1 billion for state coffers in the past four decades.

Flathead County gets the fifth-largest payout from coal royalties through the Treasure State Endowment program, which awards grants to governments and special districts to fund infrastructure projects. In all, the county has gotten about $7.7 million since 1999.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

Reporter Sam Wilson can be reached at 758-4407 or by email at [email protected].