According to scientists at the Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, the warm-water phenomenon, El Nino, has likely peaked in terms of warmth in the south-central Pacific Ocean. They also state that it’s a guarantee that this El Nino will be in the top 3, in terms of strength, since 1950. Other climatologists said that this current event is the strongest ever measured. An expert in France said that “it is probably the most powerful in the last 100 years.”

Scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory say, “there has been a tremendous distribution of heat, and that is definitely not going away anytime soon.”

Thanks, at least in part, to the strong El Nino event in the south-central Pacific Ocean, 2015 was the second warmest year on record across the U.S.

The average land and ocean temperature for the U.S. was 54.4 degrees, which was 2.4 degrees above the 20th Century average. Only 2012 was warmer for this country with a reading of 55.3 degrees.

Despite El Nino being at its peak, forecasters don’t expect its effect on global weather patterns to diminish until at least the spring season, perhaps longer. They forecast ocean temperatures to slowly decline through the winter before becoming “neutral,” or a La Nada pattern, by the late spring or summer season.

Based on historical El Ninos, for example, in 1983, El Nino rains did not arrive in California until January. In 1998, the record El Nino event, the biggest storms didn’t show up until February.

New weather patterns have been reflecting El Nino’s influence. For example, heavier rains have moved into California with stronger storms expected later this month and into February. This has cause for concern as the increased moisture would likely lead to mudslides and flooding, especially in Southern California.

This strong warm-water phenomenon has also been causing havoc across much of the globe. For example, parts of South America saw torrential rains and flooding. The recent extreme weather included the East Coast’s balmy Christmas, the deadly storms in the southern U.S., the heavy December snows in the Pacific Northwest, Australian drought and fires and the massive flooding in northern Europe and the Midwest.

According to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the warmer than normal water covers about 8 million square miles. By the way, the United States is only 3 million square miles. It’s almost mind-boggling to think that this El Nino is about two and a half times the size of the continental U.S.

Historically, strong El Ninos often lead to wetter conditions in the southern U.S. from California to the Carolinas and the East Coast. Drier weather often occurs in the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, the northern Rockies and here in the Northwest. Temperatures are usually cooler in the Desert Southwest, the southern Great Plains and the Gulf Coast. Readings are often warmer across the northern U.S.

In terms of our local weather, it’s been a rain and snow mix through the middle of January across the Inland Empire. With more precipitation expected through the weekend, I expect our January total to be over 1.50 inches by early today.

More moisture is in the forecast during the upcoming ‘full moon’ lunar phase which begins on Saturday, Jan. 23. It looks like a period of rain and snow in the lower elevations with mostly snow in the higher mountains. This is more good news for skiers and snowboarders.

Last week, more rain than snow fell across our region as the strong El Nino has helped to make air temperatures milder. If readings were about 3-5 degrees colder, then we would be shoveling a lot of snow. But, once again, it’s a temperature thing.

So far for the 2015-16 snowfall season, Cliff has reported around 42 inches of snow as of late last week. We both agree that the final total should likely end up around 55 inches. That is higher than originally forecast as that one big storm in December made the difference. However, the 55-inch forecast is below the seasonal normal of 69.7 inches.

Much of February into early March should have slightly below normal precipitation and milder than average temperatures thanks to the new El Nino pattern. As this phenomenon weakens later this spring, then moisture totals in our region should start to pick up.

Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com