Very little work will be done today.

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament starts today with 16 games of heart-stopping, breath-taking, insanely-fun games likely filled with buzzer beaters, upsets and the occasional controversy.

Those will be followed with 16 more games on Friday and the Cinderella-filled second round on Saturday and Sunday.

An estimated 51 million people will forgo whatever it is they are responsible for at work to watch the games on computers, phones and tablets. That’s not to mention the long lunches and sick days that are taken to watch the entire day of basketball uninterrupted.

But, I’m not here to talk productivity.

If you think this weekend should be a national holiday, write your congressman. He lives in Whitefish.

Instead, I’m here to make you less productive. After all, reading this column probably isn’t helping you work either.

So, to help with something semi-productive, let’s break down this year’s bracket and exactly which of those games could end up as upsets and which teams will end up in the Final Four.

Take it from the guy that finishes fourth in his bracket pool every year, there are some games that will be near locks. We don’t have a lot of time, the tourney tips off at 10:15 a.m., so let’s run down the list of tips.

The No. 1 seeds aren’t losing.

I know it may be tempting to take Florida Gulf Coast to top North Carolina, especially considering how well the Eagles did the last time they were in the tournament, but they’re not going to win. They might make it close, but they probably won’t. Bottom seeds are 0-124 all-time. Save your upset picks for elsewhere on the bracket.

At the same time, don’t pick all the No. 1’s to go through to the Final Four. That’s only happened once. Also, it’s boring. Live a little.

You’ll hear a lot about the 12-5 upset, because it’s usually a pretty solid pick. In 27 of the last 31 years a 12 seed has beaten a 5, and the collective group is nearly .500 since the tournament expanded in 1985. This year’s candidates are South Dakota State, Chattanooga, Arkansas-Little Rock and Yale. It’s an election year, go with Yale, who notes five U.S. presidents as alums, including three of the last four.

Don’t forget the mainstays. They’ll probably make deep runs regardless of the opponent.

Kentucky has made the Final Four in four of the last five years. Arizona has made the Elite Eight three of the last four years and the Sweet 16 five years straight. Michigan State has made the Sweet 16 in seven of the last eight years.

That also goes the other way. Some teams bring a big name but are upset often.

Duke won the championship last year, but lost its opening game two of the three years before that. Gonzaga has made the bracket for each of the last 18 seasons, but has lost on the first weekend in eight of the last nine years. Top overall seed Kansas has lost on the first weekend the last two years.

Also, avoid football schools.

A lot of people will gravitate towards USC or Texas because of name recognition, but unless those teams are one of the top few seeds, they probably aren’t as good as you’re picturing them. Baylor’s basketball team is good, but it’s not as likely to make a national title run as its gridiron equivalent.

Lastly, don’t follow too many rules.

Sure, you got this far into the column and it seems like good advice so far, but I also told you I finish fourth in my pool every year and suggested you pick a team based on presidents.

Don’t listen to me. Listen to your heart.

Pick against Duke because they had that player you hated a few years ago. Pick Weber State to support the Big Sky. Pick Buffalo because you saw one the other day or Wisconsin because you like cheese.

Pick only upsets or teams that end with the letter ‘A’. There’s 12 of those teams and at least two in every region. You’ll probably be wrong, but at least you’ll have a strategy.

Pick Michigan State to win. No real reason. It’s just a wonderful school. You should pick Michigan State.

You won’t get all of your picks right. The likelihood of picking a perfect bracket is less than winning back-to-back Mega Millions jackpots.

Your bracket will be in shreds by the end of the weekend and you’ll be holding on to the hope of the five teams you have left all winning so you can stay at the top of your pool and hold on to the chance of winning whatever not-at-all-illegal thing you wagered for the championship.

Most of all, have fun watching basketball. This is the most exciting time of the year to watch the sport. Don’t get bogged down by little things like productivity or work.

They might still be there when this is all over with. In three weeks.

Good luck.