The results of a pair of statewide polls released in the past two weeks indicate strong support for Republicans in the Treasure State, with the exception being in Montana’s gubernatorial race.

Lee Montana Newspapers last week published some of the results of a survey conducted for the media company by polling firm Mason-Dixon Polling and Research. The Billings Gazette reported that the survey results revealed considerable leads by Republicans in the U.S. House and presidential races, but showed a tight contest between incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock and Republican Greg Gianforte for the state’s top office.

In the Mason-Dixon poll, Gov. Bullock’s lead over Republican Greg Gianforte (47 to 45 percent) was within the survey’s margin of error. Two percent of respondents planned to vote for Libertarian candidate Ted Dunlap, while 6 percent were undecided.

The survey, which received 1,003 responses from Oct. 10 through 12, has a margin of error of 3.2 percent.

A Montana State University Billings poll released Tuesday, however, showed Bullock leading Gianforte 44 percent to 32 percent, with 20 percent undecided and 3 percent favoring Dunlap. Conducted by university students under the direction of assistant professor of political science Nisha Bellinger, the poll used survey responses from 590 Montanans polled from Oct. 3 through 10 and has a 4 percent margin of error.

Christopher Muste, a University of Montana political science professor who studies public opinion in American politics, said he suspects the political reality in the governor’s race lies somewhere between the two sets of survey results.

“The polls were taken only a week apart, so I don’t think the difference we see is the public undergoing a great change in the way they view the candidates,” Muste said. “It does look like the Bullock-Gianforte race is going to be one of those classic races in Montana that we’ve had at the state level.”

If Bullock wins in November, it will be the fourth straight election in which Montana’s Republican-leaning electorate has chosen a Democrat as governor, despite the GOP’s state-house dominance in all but two of the last 10 legislative sessions.

“The Republican Party since 2010 has really done a better job of recruiting and financially supporting candidates for the state House and state Senate,” Muste said. “The Democratic Party has, I think, run more effective statewide candidates and also had a very good get-out-the-vote effort.”

THE TWO polls did find agreement on the race for Montana’s at-large House seat.

The MSU Billings results show incumbent Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke with a 50-31 percent lead over Democratic challenger Denise Juneau, Montana’s current Superintendent of Public Instruction. The remaining 19 percent of those polled said they were undecided.

In the Mason-Dixon poll, Juneau was similarly lagging behind Zinke, according to the Billings Gazette — 53 percent to 40 percent. Polling at just 1 percent of the vote was Libertarian candidate Rick Breckenridge. He recently entered the race after Mike Fellows, the party’s original nominee, died in a car crash while returning from a campaign event in Seeley Lake last month.

The same survey found Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump with a 10-point lead over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the state, 46 percent to 36 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson came in at 11 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

That gap was even wider in MSU Billings’ results. Trump held a 16-percent lead over Clinton, with 43 percent compared to the former secretary of state’s 27 percent. Twenty percent of respondents said they were undecided.

Most recent national polls show a tighter presidential race. Muste said if Clinton maintains her national lead over Trump closer to Nov. 8, the perception of an impending victory could impact statewide and down-ballot contests in Montana.

“That could affect turnout in Montana. Montana voters could look at the presidential race and say, ‘It seems pretty decided, my vote’s not going to have much impact,’” he said. “That could be true more of Republican voters that are more disappointed at this point in the race.”

THE MSU Billings poll also took a broad look at the state legislative races this year, asking Montanans what party they planned to support for state House and Senate races in November. Overall responses mirrored the current Republican-Democrat splits in the two chambers: 45 to 27 percent for House races and 44 to 25 percent for Senate races. On both questions, more than a quarter of those surveyed responded “other” or undecided.

The university also published regional results of several survey responses. Northwest Montana voters made up 20 percent of those polled, and the region-specific results come with a 9 percent margin of error.

Bullock appeared to enjoy an even broader lead within the region, where the poll found 46 percent of respondents planning to vote for him, compared with 30 percent for Gianforte. Twenty percent were undecided.

Zinke, a Whitefish resident, carried the region by a 15-percent margin. Those voters similarly appeared to prefer Trump by a 14-percent margin over Clinton.

The Mason-Dixon poll was alone in polling voters on down-ballot statewide races.

The Billings Gazette reported that Republican Elsie Arntzen holds a 4-percent lead over Democrat Melissa Romano for state superintendent of public instruction, and Sen. Matt Rosendale, R-Glendive, holds a 10-point lead over Democrat Jesse Laslovich in the state auditor’s race. Undecided voters made up 20 percent of the respondents in the superintendent race and 24 percent for state auditor.

In an extremely tight Montana Supreme Court race, 39 percent of respondents said they were undecided, according to the Gazette. Great Falls attorney Kristen Juras led Cascade County District Judge Dirk Sandefur 31 to 30 percent.

Full results of the MSU Billings survey are available online at www.msubillings.edu.

Reporter Sam Wilson can be reached at 758-4407 or by email at swilson@dailyinterlake.com.