Last week, I talked about the chances for freezes in the Coeur d’Alene area. Temperatures last Monday and Tuesday dropped into the 30s around the Lake City, but frosts and freezes were reported from Rathdrum and Athol northward. Athol dipped to 31 degrees on Tuesday, Sept. 13. Spirit Lake dropped to a very chilly 27 degrees a day earlier.

After the brief cold spell, temperatures quickly rebounded to near 80 degrees later in the week. Cliff and I still believe that frosty temperatures will be reported in Coeur d’Alene around the early to mid October period, a tad later than normal.

As of this Friday writing, rain showers were expected to arrive during our “full moon” cycle over the weekend. Then, high pressure should briefly bring us dry weather until more showers arrive toward the end of the month and around the normally wet “new moon” lunar cycle beginning Sept. 30 and into the first week of October.

I’m still receiving questions on how much snow is expected across our region for the upcoming winter of 2016-17. For much of 2015 into early 2016, weather patterns were influenced by the very strong and warm “El Nino” sea-surface temperature pattern in the waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean, which resulted in lower than average snowfall totals over much of North Idaho last winter.

Since the middle of this year, sea-surface temperature patterns have cooled along the Equatorial regions and became more “neutral” or in a La Nada-type pattern. In other words, we seem to be in-between the cooler La Nina and the warmer El Nino sea-surface temperature event.

During the summer, computer forecast models and scientific forecasters were pointing to a weak to moderate cooler La Nina to form later this fall and winter season. The latest computer models are now pointing to a more “neutral,” or La Nada sea-surface temperature event for the rest of this year. Many U.S. forecasters are starting to agree with this scenario.

Last month, ocean waters were in a more “back-and-forth” warming and cooling cycle, especially along the Equator. Although there are some regions of cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific Ocean, they are considered to be rather weak and are not having a big influence on global weather patterns.

Australian scientists closely monitor the variations of ocean waters as their weather patterns are often influenced by the effects of the warming and cooling of sea-surface temperatures. For example, during the cooler La Nina events, northern and eastern Australia usually experiences above average rainfall during their spring season, which is our fall here in the Northern Hemisphere. When there is an El Nino, much of the continent experiences drought conditions.

Despite the cooling of ocean temperatures along the Equator and the West Coast of South America during the summer season, there are still plenty of warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, the Caribbean and along the East Coast of the U.S.

Another area of interest is from the Gulf of Alaska into the Arctic regions and eastward toward Greenland. Within the last few months, and more recently, ocean temperatures have warmed up fast to over 5 degrees Fahrenheit higher than average. We’ve heard about tremendous ice melting in the Arctic and this is probably a contributing factor.

It’s been theorized that increased underwater volcanic activity may be at least one reason why we’ve seen these warmer waters, especially in the Arctic regions. A number of thermal vents pumping hot water into these areas have been discovered in recent years.

With ocean waters well above normal in the western Gulf of Alaska, it’s now possible that the big ridge over the western U.S. may hold on through the winter of 2016-17. However, the Pacific Northwest, as well as the Inland Empire, should be on the southern edge of the Polar Jet Stream which would result in colder and snowier weather across this part of the country as well as the northern portions of the U.S. and southern Canada east of the Rockies.

This would not be good news for California as drought conditions continue. Wildfires were raging during the summer season as the Golden State will likely enter its sixth year of dryness. As of late last week, there are about 15 wildfires burning across the West with five in California. Nearly 4.8 million acres have burned for 2016, but that is way down from the 8.7 million acres burned to this date last year.

Cliff and I haven’t changed our outlook for the upcoming winter season here in North Idaho. October is often a “key” month for winter patterns to start developing. Based on the current data, snowfall totals are still expected to be above average levels across our area with the first snowflakes arriving in the lower elevations in early to mid November. Stay tuned.

Contact Randy Mann at [email protected]