(Mostly) non-political Oscar predictions

Whatever wins at the Academy Awards on Sunday night, chances are good a certain resident of the White House won’t be happy about the speeches.

At least this year’s field of movies make it worth tuning in, even if the theme of the evening inevitably strays too far from the movies. While most industry folks expect a dominant night for “La La Land,” a few categories could yield some surprises. Here are predictions on every race:

Best Picture

“La La Land” has been sitting in the frontrunner spot for months now, and the backlash of being in such a position seems to be peaking at the wrong time for the Los Angeles-set musical. Still, most of the precursor awards point to “La La Land.” The Screen Actors Guild gave its Best Ensemble prize to “Hidden Figures,” but it’s hard to gauge that film’s industry popularity given how “La La Land” wasn’t even nominated in the category.

“Hidden Figures” could pull an upset, but honestly the movie just isn’t anywhere as good on a filmmaking level. The real spoiler could still be “Moonlight,” a movie that everyone who has seen it seems to love. It will take quite a few first place votes, and many second place votes too, whereas the “La La Land” support seems to be more divisive. In the confusing preferential voting system, that could be enough to take “Moonlight” all the way. I’d be happy if either excellent film won. Prediction: “La La Land” by a hair.

Actress

Emma Stone clings to the lead here for “La La Land,” but Isabelle Huppert has some major support for “Elle.” Even Natalie Portman of “Jackie” could sneak in there. I haven’t seen “Elle,” so it’s a little tough to judge this one blind, but I’ll go with the safe bet. Prediction: Emma Stone.

Actor

A month ago, it seemed like Casey Affleck of “Manchester by the Sea” had this category locked. Then some unseemly details of his private life bubbled to the surface, and then Denzel Washington took home the Best Actor SAG award for “Fences.” I still think Affleck gave the year’s best performance, but it wouldn’t be wrong to give the prize to Washington, one of America’s most beloved performers still working at the top of his game. Prediction: Denzel Washington.

Supporting Actress

Viola Davis is essentially guaranteed this statue for “Fences.” How does she not already have an Oscar?

Supporting Actor

Another easy and well-deserved choice — Mahershala Ali for “Moonlight.”

Director

However Best Picture falls, I can’t see the Academy denying the artistry of Damien Chazelle for “La La Land.” “Moonlight” director Barry Jenkins deserves an Oscar too, but he’ll be rewarded in the screenplay competition. Prediction: Damien Chazelle.

Adapted Screenplay

Here you go, Barry Jenkins. Enjoy your Oscar.

Original Screenplay

Kenneth Lonergan’s “Manchester by the Sea” is simply the best written script of the year, and the writer’s block (tee hee) of the Academy usually prefer quality over noise and award campaigning. “La La Land” only wins here if it sweeps the entire ceremony. It won’t. Prediction: Kenneth Lonergan.

Animated Feature

“Zootopia” has most of the precursor hardware, and yes, it has a stealthy political message about cultural inclusiveness that probably pushes it enough over the edge. It’s a good movie, so don’t get too bent out of shape about it. Look for “Kubo and the Two Strings” in the spoiler position though.

Documentary Feature

Though it might lose a few votes because of its reputation as more of a TV show than movie, “O.J. Made in America” is too incredible to ignore. This is an excellent field of nominees, as usual for the category, so really anything could play spoiler.

Foreign Language Feature

Three potential winners here — critical favorite “Toni Erdmann” from Germany, the suddenly relevant “The Salesman” from Iran, and the adaptation of the popular book “A Man Called Ove” from Sweden. Having only seen one of the three (“Erdmann”), I don’t have a strong feeling any one way, and those prediction experts on the internet seem to be split on their choices. This year, of all years, I’ll bet on the movie most likely to stir the political pot. Prediction: “The Salesman.”

Song

“City of Stars” seems to be the consensus pick, but it isn’t the only “La La Land” song in the competition. It could split votes with “Audition.” I like Lin Manuel Miranda’s “How Far I’ll Go” from “Moana,” and a win here means he completes the EGOT (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony). As an obsessed fan of “Hamilton,” I’m trying to will this to happen. Prediction: “How Far I’ll Go.”

Musical Score

“La La Land,” but man, the scores for “Jackie” and “Moonlight” are also incredible.

Cinematography

Some great looking movies in the mix here, especially Martin Scorsese’s “Silence.” These bottom-line categories will be where “La La Land” support shows up strong. Prediction: “La La Land.”

Editing

“La La Land,” but if you see “Moonlight” win here early in the night, it might be a sign that it takes Best Picture. Those categories often align.

Production Design

This might be the only real Oscar shot for “Arrival,” a movie that deserves more recognition. Still, safe prediction is “La La Land.”

Makeup and Hair

You can’t even tell it’s Idris Elba under all the makeup in “Star Trek Beyond.” It should count for something.

Costume Design

“La La Land,” but “Jackie” deserves the win here.

Sound Mixing

“La La Land.” It’s a musical.

Sound Editing

I won’t pretend to be an expert on the differences between the two sound categories. All I know is a lot of other writers think “Hacksaw Ridge” will win here.

Visual Effects

Even though I’m not really a fan of some of the visuals in Disney’s live-action “Jungle Book” extravaganza, I’m not dense enough to vote against it.

The Shorts

I say every year that I’m going to try to see the theatrical presentation of the short film nominees, and yet it never seems to happen. Time for some educated guesses!

I saw Pixar’s “Piper” in front of “Finding Dory,” and the animation powerhouse was shut out of the feature category this year. History suggests Pixar finds a way to win Oscars.

For Documentary Short, both “The White Helmets” and “Extremis” are available now on Netflix streaming. “Extremis,” about end-of-life medical care, is my pick.

In Live Action Short, “Ennemis Interieurs” provides the best opportunity for some actor to butcher a title on live television. Sometimes you’ve got to cling to the simple pleasures in life.

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Tyler Wilson can be reached at [email protected].