COEUR d'ALENE — This is the perfect storm for mid-winter flooding in North Idaho.

With the above-normal 60.8 inches of snow that has fallen on Coeur d'Alene since early December, coupled with this week's predicted temperatures in the 40s and rain expected, flooding is a legitimate concern.

"By the middle of the week — Tuesday, Wednesday and into Thursday — we'll climb into the lower to mid-40s," said Press Meteorologist Randy Mann. "The ground is frozen and, if it rains, the water and snow has to go somewhere. We'll lose about half of our snow."

It’s losing control of all that moisture that’s worrisome, though.

The expected big weather swing has projects springing into action throughout North Idaho.

John Condon, who owns North Idaho Maritime, said he expects to skipper a tugboat up the St. Joe River in the St. Maries area in the middle of the week to break up ice and alleviate some of the flooding concerns there.

"If it gets ice-bound and dams up, it can get pretty serious, but we can't do it until it warms up a bit," Condon said. "Otherwise, it may refreeze on us and ice is hard on the equipment."

The last time Condon's company headed up the Joe to break up ice was eight years ago.

"We're finally having another good old-fashioned winter," he said. "Historically, when they were hauling logs out of the Joe year-round, the river was kept open regardless."

LAKE LEVEL LOGIC

Meanwhile, the recent frigid temperatures and low lake level have allowed for sediment removal at the Mica Bay boat launch on Lake Coeur d'Alene so boaters will have improved access during the summer.

"We had to wait for low temperatures to bring the lake level down in order to clean up the bay," said Greg Peck, owner of Peck and Peck Excavating, which is contracted by Kootenai County to do the work. "This 10-degree weather is good for something. This only happens during cold temperatures."

The job was a race against time, Peck said.

"We had to try to beat the next warm-up period," he said, referring to the expected rise in the lake level.

Peck said his company worked on the project three years ago but couldn't finish when a chinook wind arrived, causing the lake level to rise.

WINTER WORRIES

Robert Singletary, a local historian, said mid-winter floods like those in 1894 and 1933 were more severe than the usual springtime flooding that occurs.

"In mid-winter, the ground is frozen so it can't absorb water like during spring," he said. "It's that quick warming spell in the winter when the ground is frozen and there is nowhere for the water to go when it turns dangerous."

Singletary said some of the largest floods occurred as a result of the Spokane River narrowing at Post Falls.

"The water can't get out so it backs up," he said, adding that was why Fort Sherman (now North Idaho College) was prone to flooding decades ago before the dike road and concrete barrier was built.

ANOTHER ICE AGE

As cold as it's been and with ice building up in the lake bays and on some of the rivers, it's a far cry from the days when ice skating was commonplace on Lake Coeur d'Alene near what is The Coeur d'Alene Resort today, Singletary said.

Mann said some areas may receive an inch of snow today before the warming trend starts with Monday's high being in the 30s and Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday in the 40s.

"I think we've seen the worst of winter," he predicted.

Mann said conditions are expected to get more messy than dangerous later this week.

"If areas are prone to flooding, this may be the time it hits," he said.

Mann said he expects Coeur d'Alene will receive about 90 inches of snow for the winter. The normal is 69.8.

What may limit any flooding damage is freezing weather that's expected to arrive after the three-day thaw. Mann said if temperatures were expected to rise into the 50s or if the warmer weather lasted longer, the flooding concern would be more severe.

Mann said Friday it’s supposed to be freezing again late in the week, which could make for treacherous driving conditions.

"Rain on top of snow turns into glare ice," he said. "The neighborhoods could become iced over. We'll get another blast of cold in single digits at the end of the month."

Climatologist Cliff Harris said North Idaho has had mild winters in recent years so this year is a different feel for what we've become accustomed to.

"We are in a pattern of extremes," Harris said. "There's no middle ground."