What to expect from the Oscar nominations

Oscar nominations will be announced at the crack of way-too-early on Tuesday. Look for three films to dominate the nominations — “La La Land,” “Moonlight” and “Manchester by the Sea.”

The acting categories have a few obvious frontrunners too, including Denzel Washington and Viola Davis in “Fences,” Natalie Portman for “Jackie,” and Mahershala Ali for “Moonlight.”

Guild nominations, critics awards and the British Academy Award nominations typically provide a roadmap to how the Oscars will go, but the Academy’s preferential ballot for Best Picture gives the top category a bit of intrigue.

Here’s rundown of predictions on eight top categories, as well as my personal choices for who should be nominated.

Best Picture

Three locks — “La La Land,” “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight.” The Academy can choose anywhere from five to 10 movies, depending on high placement on voter ballots. The next batch of likely nominees include “Arrival” and “Hell or High Water.”

From there, it’s harder to determine which movies will earn enough high ballot votes. Judging from guild nominations, the last batch could include “Fences,” “Lion” and Mel Gibson’s “Hacksaw Ridge.” To make it nine nominees, I’ll say “Hidden Figures” will ride its box office success to the big show. If there are any surprises, expect them in the form of “Jackie,” “Silence,” or yes, even “Deadpool.”

My personal ballot (pick top five): “La La Land,” “Sing Street,” “Moonlight,” “O.J.: Made in America,” “Arrival.”

Best Director

The three sure-things: Damien Chazelle for “La La Land,” Barry Jenkins for “Moonlight” and Kenneth Lonergan for “Manchester by the Sea.” The Directors Guild added Denis Villeneuve for “Arrival,” and Garth Davis for “Lion,” but there tends to be a one-or-two name discrepancy between the DGA and the Academy. I’ll stick with Villeneuve, then switch in Denzel Washington for “Fences.” Because everybody loves Denzel. Alternates: Davis for “Lion,” Martin Scorsese for “Silence.”

My Ballot: Chazelle, Jenkins, Villeneuve, Park Chan-wook for “The Handmaiden,” and Daniels for “Swiss Army Man.”

Actress

Three solid bets in Amy Adams for “Arrival,” Emma Stone for “La La Land” and Natalie Portman for “Jackie.” Despite her presidential “overrated” status, Meryl Streep also looks like a likely choice for “Florence Foster Jenkins.” The Screen Actors Guild threw in Emily Blunt for “The Girl on the Train,” but there seems to be some heat for Isabelle Huppert for “Elle.” The Golden Globes don’t really matter, but Huppert’s win there added some prime exposure during Academy voting. Alternates: Blunt, Annette Bening for “20th Century Women,” Ruth Negga for “Loving,” Taraji P. Henson for “Hidden Figures.”

My Ballot: Adams, Stone, Henson, Blunt and Krisha Fairchild for “Krisha.”

Actor

The race is probably down to Casey Affleck for “Manchester by the Sea” and Denzel Washington for “Fences.” From there, Ryan Gosling in “La La Land” and Andrew Garfield for “Hacksaw Ridge” seem to have the most second-level support. Viggo Mortensen earned a Screen Actors Guild nomination for his strong work in “Captain Fantastic,” so he looks like the fifth spot. If anyone pulls spoiler on him (call it the Jill Stein effect), look at Tom Hanks for “Sully” or Joel Edgerton for “Loving.”

My Ballot: Affleck, Gosling, Washington, Hanks, and John Goodman for “10 Cloverfield Lane.”

Supporting Actress

They’re already etching Viola Davis’ name on the statue for “Fences.” The lineup is somewhat thin this year, with all the same names appearing in the precursor races — Michelle Williams for “Manchester by the Sea,” Naomie Harris for “Moonlight” and Nicole Kidman for “Lion.” The fifth slot seems to be a trade-off between “Hidden Figures” co-stars Octavia Spencer and Janelle Monae. Spencer has the (slightly) better role in the movie, so let’s go with her.

My Ballot: Davis, Williams, Harris, Gillian Jacobs for “Don’t Think Twice” and Jena Malone for “The Neon Demon.”

Supporting Actor

Despite his absurd loss at the Golden Globes, Mahershala Ali remains the frontrunner here for “Moonlight.” I wouldn’t even expect Globes winner Aaron Taylor-Johnson of “Nocturnal Animals” to even be nominated, but I hope his co-star Michael Shannon makes the cut. Two other likely names are Lucas Hedges for “Manchester by the Sea” and Dev Patel for “Lion.” Many pundits think “Hell or High Water” star Jeff Bridges will be there too. Instead, I’ll root for his co-star Ben Foster to snag a surprise nomination. Another alternate could be Hugh Grant for “Florence Foster Jenkins.”

My Ballot: Ali, Shannon, Hedges, Trevante Rhodes, also of “Moonlight,” and Alden Ehrenreich for “Hail, Caesar!”

Original Screenplay

There always seems to be seven or eight solid choices in these screenwriting categories. Start with the sure things: “Manchester by the Sea” and “La La Land.” Then you have likely Best Picture nominee “Hell or High Water,” then longshot Best Picture nominee “Jackie.” The last spot could be the wackadoo dark comedy “The Lobster,” or the Cannes Film Fest standout “I, Daniel Blake.” I’ll go with a movie I haven’t seen — “20th Century Women,” because the people who have seen it seem confident in its chances.

My Ballot: “Manchester by the Sea,” “La La Land,” “Swiss Army Man,” “Hell or High Water,” “The Lobster.”

Adapted Screenplay

A little more clarity here — “Moonlight,” “Arrival,” “Fences” and “Lion” all look like solid bets. The fifth slot probably boils down to “Hidden Figures,” “Nocturnal Animals” and “Hacksaw Ridge,” all of which I wouldn’t characterize as having great scripts. Just a gut feeling — “Nocturnal Animals” takes spot five.

My Ballot: “Moonlight,” “Arrival,” “The Handmaiden, “Hunt for the Wilderpeople,” “Captain America: Civil War.”

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Tyler Wilson can be reached at [email protected].