Meteorologists say the chances of flooding in the Flathead Valley this weekend are minimal at best, but for those entertaining ideas of a float trip over the Memorial Day holiday, it may be best to consider another activity.

“The Flathead River at Columbia Falls could reach flood stage or be a little above this weekend, and the North Fork is threatening to reach flood stage, but most of the main stems are behaving themselves right now,” said meteorologist LeeAnn Allegretto with the National Weather Service in Missoula. “The Hungry Horse Dam plays a major role in preventing flooding and they are cutting back on their discharge now because they still have space to store water at this point.”

According to the Weather Service’s Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service, the Flathead at Columbia Falls was at 13.04 feet on Friday. The river was projected to slightly rise to 13.11 feet by Saturday evening. Flood stage at that location is 13 feet, although flood watches or warnings are not issued when the river gauge is at 13 feet until Flathead Lake exceeds an elevation of 2,892 feet or the river gage exceeds 14 feet regardless of Flathead Lake levels. The lake was at 2,891 feet on Friday.

The Swan River near Bigfork was running at 5.75 feet Friday, with it projected to hit 6.37 feet late Monday. Flood stage on the Swan occurs at 6.5 feet.

Allegretto said the Weather Service wasn’t expecting any problems with the Whitefish or Stillwater rivers.

According to the Weather Service’s hydrograph, the Whitefish River near the mouth at Kalispell was just a bit above 7 feet on Friday. Flood stage on it doesn’t occur until 8.3 feet.

The Stillwater registered 5.49 feet Friday and was projected to lower in the next week. Flood stage on the Stillwater doesn’t occur until 7.5 feet.

While Allegretto isn’t expecting any flooding on the larger rivers, she did say people should pay attention to some of the smaller streams.

“People should use caution if they are doing anything on or near the rivers, but what people should really be aware of are how the smaller streams could be if we get some of the thunderstorms that are in the forecast.”

Allegretto said the small streams “are ready to go” right now and they can react very quickly to a localized thunderstorms.

“We think some of the smaller streams in the Mission Valley could rise quickly with some of the possible storms Friday night and Saturday, and also some in Sanders and Lincoln counties,” Allegretto said.

For those planning a river run this weekend, one area outfitter suggests waiting until conditions improve.

Darwon Stoneman, longtime owner and operations manager of Glacier Raft Company in West Glacier, said his outfit does have a couple of groups going out Saturday, but right now discretion is the better part of valor.

“The Middle Fork is pretty high right now, up over 8 feet, and when it gets over 7 1/2 or 8 feet, it’s pretty easy to flip. With the water being so cold and fast now, it can be hard to get out of the river.

He also said many of the main rapids on the Middle Fork are washed out this time of year.

Stoneman said the forecast is for the Middle Fork to go over 9 1/2 feet.

The North Fork was just under 9 feet Friday morning and it had risen nearly a foot since May 20.

“When that happens, you get more logs in the river and when there are a lot of them, we just stay off it,” Stoneman said. “Experienced rafters could handle it, but it’s best to stay off it when the conditions are like this.”

Stoneman said the consequences of ending up in the water this time can be serious.

“The North Fork is prone to more log jams and going underneath one of them can be a very serious situation,” he said. “At this point, I’d go do something else on Memorial Day weekend.

“There’s a lot of summer coming up and the risks are greater than the rewards,” Stoneman said.

Reporter Scott Shindledecker may be reached at 758-4441 or sshindledecker@dailyinterlake.com.