Montana’s aging workforce will continue to challenge employers, but the state’s transient nature of residents “constantly moving in and out” can work to businesses’ advantage, a top Montana economist told the audience at the Montana Chamber Foundation’s annual Economic Update Series in Kalispell Thursday.

The presentation, titled “Silver Tsunami: Are Montana’s Businesses Ready?” featured Patrick Barkey, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana. Congressman Greg Gianforte, R-Mont., also offered closing remarks about the status of Montana’s workforce.

Barkey, who is generally considered “the state’s economist,” has conducted a statewide economic update every six months for the past 12 years. He opened the presentation by explaining Montana’s economic trends within the context of economics on a national and global scale.

Along with the rest of the country, Barkey reported Montana’s economy has grown since 2016 and the labor market has tightened continually. He also stated, “the state revenue growth has been good.” But he warned the overall growth trend in the U.S. is a global anomaly that’s not expected to continue.

He also explained how global trade relations could directly impact the state’s economy. In particular, he warned that tariffs on China’s steel market could have ramifications for Montana if China were to retaliate against agricultural products.

Along with these global trends, Barkey also noted several workforce trends particular to Montana. He emphasized the challenge of Montana’s aging workforce. Growth in the state’s population of prime age workers has stagnated, and that growth is one of the lowest of all Western states. In fact, Barkey claimed, “Montana is the oldest Western state” based on workers’ median age.

Barkey warned further, “these challenges are likely to persist or get worse.”

Migration is an important foil to these challenges.

“Migration trends can change population projections,” Barkey noted. Thanks to a healthy culture of work-life balance and “destination counties” like Flathead, Montana is a “state where people are constantly moving in and out.”

He also warned businesses not to shy away from new business out of fear they cannot find the labor to fill new jobs. Welcoming new business creates jobs, lifts Montanans out of unemployment and spurs economic growth, he insisted.

Despite the demographic challenges, Barkey reported, “Montana’s labor market is still tightening.” It is a positive sign for the state that the labor market is experiencing “tight enough growth to suck people in and get them off unemployment,” Barkey explained.

Another bright spot in Barkey’s economic outlook is the burgeoning opportunities in the state’s technology sector. Although he feels the focus on tech in Montana has been underrepresented, he pointed out “tech-related business and construction remain healthy, especially in Western Montana.”

Gianforte was candid about the outmigration of young workers due to “lack of opportunity.”

“There aren’t a lot of high wage jobs,” he observed, adding Montana is “43rd in the nation in wages.” He also claimed, “the state workforce has grown barely 3 percent in the last decade.”

He expressed hope to use these insights to “invite Montanans back home.”

Reporter Bret Anne Serbin may be reached at bserbin@dailyinterlake.com or 758-4459.