2020 economic forecast: Mostly sunny
Coeur d'Alene Press | UPDATED 6 years AGO
Economist John Mitchell
By MIKE PATRICK
Staff Writer
COEUR d’ALENE — If you’re looking for storm clouds on the economic horizon, you’ll probably need a powerful telescope and a peck of paranoia.
Speaking to a packed house of 215 business people and community leaders this morning, economist Dr. John Mitchell said there’s little reason to expect the nation’s unprecedented 126-month expansion to come to a screeching halt. In his annual Coeur d’Alene Chamber of Commerce breakfast address at the Best Western Plus Coeur d’Alene Inn, the veteran fiscal forecaster predicted mostly sunny skies at least through 2020.
Sure, there’s some uncertainty with impeachment proceedings, Mitchell acknowledged. Angst ebbs and flows with international trade and tariff talk. It’s always possible the market could see a big dip, or threats emerge to upend the tax system or the medical system. And of course, Mitchell had to raise the specter of a black swan event - some disaster that nobody sees until after it’s already happened - no matter how unlikely.
“I worry about... people’s willness to take chances and invest,” he conceded. “That’s a threat.”
But having covered the big scary stuff, Mitchell’s forecast had a calming effect.
“The things that preceeded many other recessions don’t seem to be there,” he said.
Close to home, Mitchell cited Idaho’s 2.1 percent population growth as No. 1 in the nation, essentially tied with Nevada. Idaho’s job growth for the year through October was a sturdy 2 percent. He charted Kootenai County job growth for three years, from October 2016 through October 2019, and tallied 8.4 percent growth, with construction and leisure/hospitality leading the way.
The local housing picture is bright - if you care about the value of your real estate, anyway. According to Mitchell’s research, the Coeur d’Alene metro area had the fourth highest housing appreciation rate in the country as of the year’s third quarter. Chico, Calif., rising from the ashes of the Paradise Fire, led the way with a 14.25 percent appreciation rate. Boise (11.81) was second, followed by Idaho Falls (11.33) and Coeur d’Alene (10.85). Demonstrating the growth power of the Northwest, Spokane was fifth in the nation (9.36).
See tomorrow’s Press for more on Dr. Mitchell’s presentation.