I vividly recall a battle I was involved in at a place called “Ben Tre” during the 1968 “Tet” offensive in Vietnam. Our unit was greatly out numbered and the only thing that prevented us from being over run was by the maximum use of air strikes, gunships and artillery fire.

Shortly after the battle Newsweek featured an article with the banner, ”Ben Tre we had to destroy it to save it!” The reason I am bringing this up is that the American economy has become our Ben Tre. We are destroying our economy to a level that a recession is a certainty and a depression is a possibility. The question we must ask ourselves is whether the massive shut down of our economy and instantly putting about 10 million people out of work was worth the terrible economic price we will have to pay?

It is easy for me and other pundits to second guess the recommendations of the public health experts and the decisions of our political leaders as we will not be held responsible for the outcome. The worst-case model I have seen foresees a national mortality number in excess of 1.5 million if we do not shelter in place. This number may or may not be true it is only a guess based on what’s taking place elsewhere. We must ask ourselves the question: What level of deaths can we accept? The answer cannot be “zero” as a pandemic like a war is going to have casualties.

When planning a combat operation, one of the planning considerations is the estimate of combat losses of which the casualty rate is a part of. The estimated casualty rate forms the basis for determining the composition and size of the medical and mortuary personnel and assets that will be needed. In short, a model based on best guesses is used to prepare to care for the expected casualties.

During the World War II battle of Okinawa, over 12,000 Americans were killed and over 38,000 were wounded. The Japanese had 107,000 killed (very few were captured) and a estimated 100,000 civilians (half the population) were also killed. Based on the Okinawa model, it was estimated that 10 million Americans and about 25-30 million Japanese would die in the invasion of Japan. This number was not acceptable to President Truman and he opted to use the atomic bomb to convince the Japanese to surrender.

We Americans prize lives, however you cannot win a war or even a game of chess or checkers without losses. In battle all efforts are directed toward seizing the objective and accomplishing the mission. Hopefully this can be done with least possible losses but the over riding factor is mission accomplishment which remains paramount.

Our mission must now and always be and continue to be, is the preservation of our economy at least to a level that it can adequately provide for our population. Growing up during the later stages of the Great Depression has taught me that it must be avoided if humanly possible as it’s effects are devastating and long lasting.

Restarting of the economy will require detailed planning and preparation. I envision it would be done in four phases.

1. Pre start-up.

2, Initial start-up

3. Incremental additions

4. Full production.

We should have begun phase 1 before we even shut it down by beginning the planning and preparations to start it back up. I would propose a phase 2 (initial start-up) target date of no later than May 1, subject to the following conditions:

1. Continue the sequester of the aged (70 and up) and individuals with severe underlying conditions.

2. Protect all medical and first responders by giving them the plasma antibody or the anti malaria/antibiotic therapy which ever is proven to be the most effective.

3. Bring back to the workforce all able bodied retired medical and health care workers.

4. Use the identified therapies to treat the most severe cases of coronavirus and explore their usefulness in increasing the immunity of the aged and people with under lying issues.

5. Continue the ban of large scale public and sporting events.

6. Require restaurants, cafes, bars and other service industries to keep the customer levels below half of the fire occupancy rate and maintain spacing between customers.

I am sure that other conditions could be added, however this should be sufficient as a starting point. Phase 3 would begin immediately after the implementation of stage 2. Phase 4 would be enacted as soon as the threat is down to a manageable level.

Announcing a start up target date coupled with making the populace aware of the on going planning and preparations for a restart would bolster their morale and spirits and remove the uncertainty. We need to lift the clouds of doubt and despair felt by millions of Americans who have no income and are worried about economic survival.

I echo the expressed sentiment that we cannot allow the cure to become worse than the disease. Let’s put America back to work!

— Jack Heller lives in Lakeside