This year’s shortened awards season ends Sunday with the Academy Awards, where Sam Mendes’ WWI-epic “1917” goes in as the clear frontrunner. Can “Parasite” or “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood” come from behind to take Best Picture? Will the acting categories bring any surprises?

Even with less time to crunch the numbers, here’s our educated guesses on what will win in all 24 categories, as well as this writer’s personal opinion on what should win.

Best Picture

Statistically, “1917” has a clear advantage, winning the top prizes at the Producers Guild, (PGA) Directors Guild (DGA), the Golden Globes, the British Academy Awards and a few other major precursors. The critical darling, Bong Joon Ho’s “Parasite,” won the Best Ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG). Actors make up a large portion of the Academy voting pool, but SAG hasn’t been lining up Oscar’s Best Picture in recent years.

Quentin Tarantino’s “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood” seemed like a bigger contender a couple weeks ago, and its industry-set story still might push it in for a big win. While Tarantino has two Oscars for screenwriting, none of his films has ever won Best Picture.

Even though the Academy’s preferential ballot voting method could push the widely acclaimed “Parasite” to the top, no foreign language film has ever won Best Picture, and the movie is a lock for at least one Oscar in the International Feature category. The more technically-ambitious “1917” is also a box office hit and its overall buzz peaked at exactly the right time for Oscar voting.

Will win: “1917.”

Should win: “Parasite.” As much as I like “1917,” Bong Joon ho’s masterful “Parasite” will go down as one of the best movies of the past decade.

Actress

Renee Zellweger keeps winning everything this season for her role as Judy Garland in “Judy.” She’s a solid lock, however, of all the acting categories, Zellweger is the most vulnerable just because she’s a past winner and the movie itself doesn’t have as much buzz as the performance.

Will win: Zellweger.

Should win: Scarlett Johansson in “Marriage Story.” She might have had a better shot to win had she not also been nominated for “Jojo Rabbit” in Supporting Actress.

Actor

Juaquin Phoenix will win for “Joker,” a movie with an inexplicably huge number of overall nominations. Phoenix deserves to be an Oscar winner, even if I don’t care for this particular movie.

Will win: Phoenix.

Should win: Adam Driver, “Marriage Story.”

Supporting Actress

Laura Dern leads the charge here for her performance in “Marriage Story.” This narrative was locked in months ago.

Will and should win: Dern.

Supporting Actor

This category, like the other acting categories, appears to be locked, with longtime industry favorite Brad Pitt winning nearly every precursor award for his “supporting” performance in “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood” (he’s a co-lead with Leonardo DiCaprio, and he might even have more screen time).

Will win: Pitt.

Should win: Joe Pesci, “The Irishman.”

Director

Even if something else sneaks in to win Best Picture, “1917” helmer Sam Mendes should ride the film’s technical marvels to a second directing win. He won the DGA, so it’d be silly to bet against him here.

Will win: Mendes

Should win: Bong Joon ho, “Parasite.”

Original Screenplay

This one’s a bit tough. Tarantino is adored for his screenwriting, while “Parasite” certainly ranks up there as one of the more brilliantly constructed scripts of recent years. The Academy might look to showcase Noah Baumbach for “Marriage Story,” though the buzz on the movie has largely tapered off outside of Dern’s Supporting Actress momentum.

Should and will win: I’ll go out on a limb and say “Parasite,” just riding the theory that it just misses Best Picture and wins here as a sort of consolation prize. It also won the Writers Guild prize, though Tarantino wasn’t eligible there.

Adapted Screenplay

Ever since Greta Gerwig missed out on a nomination for directing “Little Women,” it seems like there’s been a media push for her to earn the Oscar here. It’s certainly a great movie with a dynamic script that remixes the beloved classic. Just watch out for some stealthy “Jojo Rabbit” love for Taika Waititi.

Should and will win: Gerwig.

Cinematography

Roger Deakins owns this prize walking in the door of the show on Sunday with his incredible use of long, continuous shots in “1917.”

Should and will win: “1917”

International Feature

Should and will win: Even if all else fails for “Parasite” at the Oscars, Bong Joon ho will win here.

Animated Feature

With no clear frontrunner, it’s probably best to bet on Pixar, even though the Academy hasn’t typically rewarded their sequels. Still, “Toy Story 4” is really good.

Should and will win: “Toy Story 4.”

Documentary Feature

The frontrunner heading into the nominations was “Apollo 11.” Then it didn’t get nominated. “Honeyland” appears to be the most acclaimed of this bunch, and it also managed to secure a nomination in the International Feature category.

Editing

This one could go a lot of different ways. Editing often lines up with Best Picture, but “1917” (understandably) isn’t nominated. Perhaps that “Parasite” surge I want so badly will win out here, though “Ford v Ferrari” has some precursor heat in this category.

Production Design

This category could go to “1917” if it sweeps the tech categories. The front-runner though is Tarantino’s impeccable recreation of 1960s Hollywood in “Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.”

Original Score

Even folks who don’t like “Joker” (like me) still really appreciate the score.

Original Song

Elton John’s “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from “Rocketman” seems the most Oscar friendly. Still, it feels weird to bet against the “Frozen” song,

Sound Editing/Mixing

If you’re the betting type, it might be smart to vote one of these for “1917” and one for “Ford v. Ferrari.” The latter has been winning precursors, but “1917” has that frontrunner heat and could clean up across the tech categories.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Charlize Theron doesn’t look much like Megyn Kelly in real life, but she does in “Bombshell.”

Visual Effects

This might be the only Oscar recognition for box office king “Avengers: Endgame.” But “1917” could get this if it sweeps the tech awards.

Costume Design

I always always go with the most old-looking stuff, so “Little Women.”

The Shorts

These categories are tough to call, even if you manage to see the showcase that screens in theaters occasionally. I haven’t seen them this year, so I’m only relying on what others have said about these. Don’t put any money down on these picks:

Animated Short - “Hair Love”

Documentary Short - “Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone”

Live Action Short - “Brotherhood”

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Tyler Wilson can be reached at [email protected]. He’s been writing professionally about movies since 2000 and is the co-host of Old Millennials Remember Movies, available everywhere you get podcasts and at OldMillennialsRemember.com.