MOSES LAKE — “Numbers are stories. They’re not numbers. They’re actually stories, so the context helps explain that story,” said Dr. Patrick Jones of Eastern Washington University’s Institute for Public Policy and Economics at a study session prior to a recent Moses Lake City Council meeting. “Where are we now? Where were we 10 years ago?”

The institute gathered data, wrote explanations, conducted statistical tests and designed grantcountytrends.org, a website meant to improve local, public decision making by providing relevant data.

He visited July 27 to provide a State of the Union of sorts – an update on Moses Lake and Grant County’s population, economy, education and crime statistics.

“These data sets have been very beneficial in the past in terms of helping our elected bodies benchmark some of the issues, community issues, that they want to make an impact on with the work that we do,” said City Manager Allison Williams.

Population

Grant County saw a population boom in the 1990s, a boom right before 2008’s Great Recession and has been on a constant rise since then, Jones said. June 2021 estimated the county surpassed 100,000 people.

The current Moses Lake population is just over 25,000, he said. It grows more than 2% a year, a rate higher than the state population growth of 1.7%.

Eighty-eight percent of Moses Lake residents have internet access, he said, which is higher than the nation’s average of 86.6%, but lower than the state average of 91.4%.

For a rural community, it’s exceptionally high, he said.

“I’m sure there’s lots of reasons for this, but we don’t always try to explain the why,” he said. “I’m sure some of you in the room could explain the why better than we could, so we don’t go in that particular direction.”

Economy

Grant County’s median household income is around $57,000, lower than the nation’s median of $65,700, Jones said. The state’s median is $78,600, but this is, of course, influenced by western counties.

Grant County’s median has been steadily catching up to the U.S. median, he said, narrowing the gap each year.

“It’s my expectation that if you keep on the path you are, you will be close to the U.S. median within a decade,” he said. “That’s just my hunch.”

Moses Lake’s population is growing faster than the county’s, but the median income isn’t rising accordingly, he said.

For a family of four – two adults and two children – the federal poverty level is $25,000 a year. Grant County’s poverty rate has fallen from 16% to 14.8% in recent years, meaning one out of seven people are at or below the poverty line.

For Moses Lake, the poverty rate has dropped in recent years from 15% to 12%, he said.

“There are communities in eastern Washington that have much higher poverty rates, I might add, and I would say this poverty rate that you’re looking at right here is quite low compared to other communities in eastern Washington, including Spokane,” he said.

Because of Washington’s retail tax system, it tends to be a good indicator of the overall economy, he said.

In 2020, Grant County saw a decline in its retail sales from $2.8 billion to $2.4 billion.

“County commissioners must have been sweating bullets over that one, to see a 14, almost 15% reduction in sales tax,” he said.

In this time, the state’s sales tax declined only 1.5%, he said.

The drop wasn’t all because of the pandemic, he said. 2019 was a big year for construction projects in Grant County, which can raise retail sales tax.

Moses Lake, on the other hand, increased 4.6% in sales over the pandemic, he said.

“That is one of the faster increases that we’ve seen in eastern Washington, so it may not have felt like a fun year for most people, but the cash registers got rung one way or another,” he said.

These numbers set the city up well for an economically viable 2021, he said.

Education

Education is an important aspect to look at, because it’s one of the biggest qualifiers families consider when moving into a new area, Jones said.

Grant County is unique in its number of English-language learners starting their education at a deficit, he said.

The county’s five-year graduation rate is 87%, a climb from the 71% of 10 years ago.

The county as a whole is a bit above the state performance now, he said.

“You are graduating kids at a fairly high rate, and it sort of raises the question, what is the ceiling? Can we actually graduate 100% of our kids? Probably not. Could we graduate 95%? Well, maybe,” he said.

Crime

Grant County’s property crime rate of 24.1 per 1,000 residents is lower than the state’s 26.8. It’s on a downward trend, as well, and will likely approach the nation’s rate of 21.1 in just a couple years, he said.

Moses Lake, on the other hand, has a higher property crime rate than the county, but this is decreasing, as well.

In 1995, Moses Lake’s crime rate doubled that of the county, he said. Over time, it’s dramatically declined and now it’s much closer to the county’s rate.

“I don’t know the story here,” he said. “I’m sure there’s a lot of stories behind this, but I find that decline pretty compelling, pretty strong.”

In conclusion

One of the most vital aspects to look at, moving into the future, is median income, Jones said. This can be increased by strategizing new wages and creating diversity in the workforce.

During the 2020 pandemic, however, Moses Lake saw strong population growth and strong commercial activity, he said. Not only that, but the rate of employment dropped much less than many surrounding communities and the county continues to have one of the higher graduation rates in the state.