A snowy and colder than normal winter is forecast for northwestern Montana for the upcoming winter.

There’s a high likelihood of a moderate strength La Nina winter, the same as last winter, the National Weather Service in Missoula said during its recently released winter weather outlook for 2021-22. La Nina is a climate pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean and can impact temperature and precipitation.

There’s higher confidence that the mountain snowpack will be above normal in the Northern Rockies, while valleys in northwest Montana are expected to see above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures.

The snowfall amounts for past La Nina winters for Kalispell have shown wide swings, according to Dave Noble with the National Weather Service. Last winter saw 40.1 inches of snow, but the two previous La Nina winters saw roughly double that with 81.5 inches recorded in 2017-18 and 88.8 inches of snow in 2016-17.

“Last season came up short,” he said. “The average snowfall for the November through March period is 51 inches.”

Noble pointed out that the National Weather Service’s official station for Kalispell is located at Glacier Park International Airport meaning that arctic winds coming out of Bad Rock Canyon can impact the recorded snowfall measurements. Weather observers, however, around Kalispell recorded a foot more of snow in 2017 than at the airport, and another observer recorded 102 inches in 2017-18.

For West Glacier, the snowfall for last winter was below normal at 74.4 inches, but the preceding four La Nina winters saw snowfall totals ranging from 117 inches to 148 inches. The average for November through March is 109.6 inches.

“Confidence is pretty good that West Glacier and the surrounding areas have a good shot at receiving more snowfall this season,” he said.

In terms of temperatures, the winter season can be warmer than normal during a strong La Nina but during moderately strong La Nina’s Kalispell saw three out of five seasons that were below normal. The average temperature for Kalipsell from November through March is 30 degrees Fahrenheit.

“Much of western Montana is the battleground for how far west the arctic air will travel,” he noted.