THE CHEAP SEATS with STEVE CAMERON: It's all set up for M's to end drought. But ...
Coeur d'Alene Press | UPDATED 4 years, 1 month AGO
If there were only two games left in the season, the drought would be over.
Unfortunately …
The Mariners must navigate 43 more games if they’re going to snatch an AL wild-card berth this autumn.
And let their fans exhale.
Finally.
When the Mariners begin a series in Oakland tonight, there will not be any team closer than 2 1/2 games behind them in the race for one of the three available spots.
Sweeping three games from the Angels in Anaheim — and scoring 25 runs in the process — has given Seattle a 65-54 record, and the top spot among all the clubs staging a real rock fight for entrance into the playoffs.
So, do you feel comfortable?
Hah.
Only when the Mariners have survived down the stretch and make it official — THAT’S when you’ll sleep soundly each night.
Can they do this, then?
YAY: The schedule looks terrific, and it’s far easier than any of the other wild-card contenders.
Only 15 of those remaining 43 games come against teams with winning records, and just five — three against Atlanta and two against San Diego — involve teams with marks better than Seattle’s 11 games over .500.
As a bonus, both Atlanta and San Diego will be coming to T-Mobile Park.
Finally, the Mariners’ last 20 games are against teams with losing records, and the regular season finishes with a 10-game homestand against Texas (3), Oakland (3) and Detroit (4).
You almost couldn’t ask for a better dash to line than that.
NAY: We might know a little more about one issue tonight, when Marco Gonzales takes his 7-12 record and 4.18 ERA out to face the Athletics.
“We’ve leaned on our starting pitching all season, and we’re going to lean on those guys the rest of the way,” said manager Scott Servais.
There are a few question marks just beginning to pop up over the five guys Servais hopes will keep the Mariners in almost every game – giving them a shot to win more than their share (they have 27 one-run victories, after notching 33 a year ago).
Gonzales has a 6.69 ERA over his last six starts, and needs to turn that around — especially since Servais chose to keep Marco in the rotation and put the reliable Chris Flexen (3.86 ERA) in the bullpen when they acquired ace Luis Castillo.
Meanwhile, the two sparkling kids in the rotation, Logan Gilbert (6.59 ERA since the All-Star break) and George Kirby, have reached uncharted territory in terms of innings pitched.
Gilbert is sitting at 138 1/3 innings, more than he’s ever thrown in a season.
Kirby’s previous high was 90 1/3 at Elon College, and he’s already thrown 118 innings this year.
Can these two manage to stay sharp down the stretch?
It’s scary.
YAY: The Mariners finally have a full, deep roster — minus the recovering Kyle Lewis.
On the plus side, though …
Mitch Haniger is back and raking the baseball.
Carlos Santana, an inspired pickup from the Royals, has delivered a bucket full of huge hits — including four game-winning home runs.
Switch-hitting Sam Haggerty has hit over .300, been successful on all eight of his stolen-base attempts, and generally has added pizzaz to a Mariners lineup that features several “long ball or nothing” guys (Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh quickly come to mind).
More good news: Jesse Winker is starting to hit like, ah, Jesse Winker — that one, with the career .275 batting average and .848 OPS.
Oh, and let’s not forget Castillo, who has stepped immediately to the top of the heap, and gives you the feeling that you’re going to win any game he starts.
So far, he’s been matched with the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole (twice) and then Shohei Ohtani in Anaheim — and yep, the Mariners won all three games.
That’s the definition of a stud.
NAY: The Mariners are likely going nowhere if they can’t get offense from Julio Rodriguez and Ty France.
Both are coming off bad wrist injuries (Julio was on the IL, and France missed four games).
At the moment, neither are producing much.
Rodriguez was zip-for-16 before suddenly erupting for three hits, including a homer, on Tuesday night in Anaheim.
On Wednesday afternoon, though, he went hitless in five at-bats — when the rest of the Mariners were tattooing the Angels for 11 runs.
J-Rod may still have a little too much of the Home Run Derby in his mind, since he often looks now like he’s swinging himself into the ground.
France, meanwhile, is in an even greater funk, with two hits in his last 28 plate appearances — numbers that seem almost impossible.
Asked if the wrist was to blame, France stuck with his generally wry character.
“Why, because I suck at baseball right now?” he replied. “No, the wrist isn’t the reason I suck at baseball.”
In truth, France has done something unusual for him, what he called “chasing hits” — basically, expanding the strike zone to swing at pitches he can’t put on the barrel.
The stats bear that out, and France conceded that he had to get back to hitting pitches he can handle.
If he does, a lot of line drives are coming.
But we can’t kid ourselves …
Ty and Julio HAVE to hit.
VERDICT: Can these Mariners achieve what’s been impossible for two decades?
Jeff Passan, perhaps the most reasoned ESPN baseball analyst, put it this way …
“I think it’s easier to figure out what a great team looks like than what a good team looks like,” Passan said during an interview on Seattle Sports 710 AM.
“I think there are five potentially great teams in Major League Baseball right now, and those are the Dodgers, the Mets, the Braves, the Yankees and the Astros.
“Everybody else is on that borderline of ‘Are they good?’ or ‘Are they not?’ — because they’re all teams with flaws.
“The Mariners’ flaws, to me, are getting lesser and lesser as the season goes on.”
So, yes, I would say that the Seattle Mariners are a good team.
Good enough for this task?
A major league executive put it another way …
“Adding Castillo to the team Seattle has now, and that easy, easy schedule they’re looking at, I’d be shocked if they’re not in the playoffs.”
Perhaps that’s why ESPN gives the Mariners a near-cinch 88 percent chance to savor the postseason.
But until it happens …
Yeah.
I know.
Email: [email protected]
Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press three times each week. He also writes Zags Tracker, a commentary on Gonzaga basketball which is published monthly during the offseason, and weekly beginning in October.
Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”