THE CHEAP SEATS with STEVE CAMERON: The data is clear: Seahawks need Jimmy G at QB

Pete Carroll wasn’t kidding.

Now that Baker Mayfield is off the board — traded by the Browns to Carolina — we seem to have proof that Pete is dead serious about tying the Seahawks’ fate to quarterback Drew Lock.

You already know, I’m sure, that most evaluators consider Lock a failure from his time in Denver.

This isn’t just what our eyes tell us, either.

There is detailed, mind-numbing data produced by Pro Football Focus that provides a laser look at every regular QB on the basis of their play from 2019 through 2021.

(Spoiler: Unless Carroll and his staff can re-create a completely NEW Drew Lock, the Seahawks are making a terrible mistake. You’ll understand shortly.)

There are a few “Wow!” conclusions in the PFF study, in addition to the fact that Lock was pretty close to being the worst starter in the NFL (among QBs with 320 dropbacks or more in those three seasons).

He wasn’t QUITE at the absolute bottom — hello, Cam Newton — but near enough to consider another profession.

We’ll explain the different categories and detail how they were measured in a minute, but PFF’s real-life numbers scream out that Carroll and GM John Schneider should trade draft capital (and maybe even the Space Needle) to pry Jimmy Garoppolo from the 49ers — assuming he isn’t just released.

SERIOUSLY.

By almost every metric, it appears that Jimmy G has been perhaps the most underrated QB in the league over the past three years.

And now, with San Francisco ready to hand the No. 1 job over to wonderchild Trey Lance, Garoppolo could be available.

But let’s back up a moment …

The Pro Football Focus study looked basically at three categories – with others available if you want to get so headache-deep in numbers that you’ll need to make it a full-time job.

Here were the three main areas of study:

“Decision-making” — This is basically about a QB putting himself in the best possible situation to complete the necessary throw. It takes in understanding alignments on offense and defense, the skill of personnel involved, possible need to make a late change, and then ultimately get to a proper throwing spot (including body position).

“Execution in Relation to Decision” — Just what you’d expect, the ability to make whatever throw is needed, with proper timing, and putting the right juice and height on a pass. That’s really simplifying this category, but you get the idea. Can you make the throw you need?

“Decision and Execution Combined” — Yes, just as it sounds, this SHOULD give you a ranking of quarterback effectiveness. Anyone near the top of this list is making a lot of money.

When we talk about sub-categories to, say, distinguish a quarterback who likes to throw on the run, or a QB prone to holding the ball too long, etc., you have things like this list: “Execution on Non-Optimal Plays.”

This isn’t just some trivial category, since it tells you how a quarterback performed when things were difficult — against talented secondaries, facing a heavy pass rush, with the defense denying your key routes and so on.

It’s no surprise that Aaron Rodgers leads this group by some distance (Green Bay to the South Pole).

More importantly, though, Garoppolo landed at fifth in this category, outstanding work among the 41 QBs who played enough to qualify for all these PFF data sets.

Here’s a bit of a shock: Russell Wilson was way down at 24th on the list of throwers creating something good when things go wrong.

In fact, the Broncos might want to hope that Russ outperforms his numbers across the entire PFF study.

Wilson checked in at No. 18 as a decision-maker (barely above average), No. 17 in execution and, given those two numbers, it’s no surprise that he was considered 17th overall.

Perhaps, just perhaps, the team surrounding Russ in Seattle has been better than we’ve all assumed — and further, that he hasn’t always been driving the bus as the football world believed.

SO, WHY are we making the case here for acquiring Jimmy G — either by trade or, more likely, when the 49ers are forced to release him?

OK, you saw that No. 5 ranking in making positive plays out of bad situations.

Taking an even wider view, Garoppolo was No. 9 as a decision-maker over that three-season span, and 11th in execution.

In other words, statistical experts who studied thousands of plays (leaving emotion, hype and reputation completely out of it) can show you data to prove that Jimmy Garoppolo at No. 11 was a better quarterback than Russell Wilson from 2019 through 2021.

Both would be considered near the bottom of the league’s top tier, with Garoppolo above Russ in every category.

The Seahawks — who may be a little more savvy than most fans thought in trading Wilson — now must complete this coup by finding a worthy successor.

Jimmy G may not wind up in the Hall of Fame, but he would win more games for Seattle than anyone currently on the roster.

Drew Lock almost surely will be a bust.

Lock ranked a scary 28th in decision-making, and his ability to execute was ghastly — 35th out of the 41 QBs.

Overall, he was No. 35 again (oh, and for getting something positive out of tough situations … No. 36).

Ugh!

Mayfield was better than Lock, by the way, but even Baker came in mostly average across the board.

To sum up what Pro Football Focus analysts spent hundreds of hours studying …

Unless the Seahawks are simply tanking and waiting for a quarterback in 2023, Drew Lock (and Geno Smith) should be sidelined for Jimmy Garoppolo.

Trade, release, whatever.

It’s SO damn clear, thus …

Case closed.

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Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press three times each week. He also writes Zags Tracker, a commentary on Gonzaga basketball which is published monthly during the offseason, and weekly beginning in October.

Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”