The Academy Awards finally announce its winners on Sunday, with a battle brewing between longtime frontrunner “The Power of the Dog” and the dark horse “CODA” for Best Picture.

For folks who enjoy making predictions, the ceremony itself will be anticlimactic in spots, as the Academy will hand out eight awards prior to the show (though the winner’s speeches will apparently be re-integrated into the ABC telecast).

As has also been a recent trend, Lifetime Achievement Oscar winners have already been awarded their prizes, meaning we’ve all been skunked out of a live Samuel L. Jackson acceptance speech. Oh well, at least the man now has an (expletive deleted) Oscar.

As in year’s past, here is a breakdown of what I think will win in each category on Sunday, as well as what should win (meaning the nominee I think actually deserves the trophy). My track record over the years is consistently mediocre, so take that under consideration before placing any monetary bets.

Best Picture

Throughout the race, Netflix’s “The Power of the Dog” cruised as the steady player for Best Picture. It’s an excellent movie, which helps, and it would be a historic win in that Netflix (or any streaming service for that matter) has not yet won the top prize. “Dog” is the nominations leader this year, suggesting wide industry support, and it’s won a majority of the predictive precursors.

However, spend enough time in the pole position and you’ll eventually find competition, and Apple’s sentimental crowd pleaser “CODA” seems to be the movie riding a recent wave of buzz. It won the Ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), which gave the appealing cast a big TV moment right when Academy members began to receive ballots. Last week, “CODA” won at the Producers Guild as well, the only major precursor that uses a preferential balloting system like the Academy.

This will be a close race, and despite “CODA” earning only three total nominations, it appears to be in position to win. It’s a good movie, but for me, it falls somewhere in the middle of the 10-movie lineup in terms of craft.

Will win: “CODA.”

Should win: “The Power of the Dog.”

Director

Even if “The Power of the Dog" loses Picture, Jane Campion seems like a lock for director after winning the Director’s Guild prize. She made a few provocative statements on the campaign trail recently, which probably hurts a bit, but she will likely prevail because there simply isn’t an agreed-upon challenger in the category.

Will and should win: Campion, “The Power of the Dog.”

Actress

Ooof, this category seems tight. The extremely overdue Jessica Chastain managed to prevail at SAG for her excellent performance in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” The problem is that everyone else can claim passionate support as well, most significantly Nicole Kidman (Golden Globe winner) for “Being the Ricardos,” but also Academy favorites Penelope Cruz and Olivia Colman. Even first time nominee Kirsten Stewart has an outside chance here, as her performance in “Spencer” took home numerous critics prizes earlier in the season.

Should win: Stewart gave my favorite performance in the category.

Will win: I’ll still be happy to see Jessica Chastain squeak this out.

Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch gives an incredible performance in “The Power of the Dog.” That said, it feels like SAG winner Will Smith already locked this win down for “King Richard,” and, look, as an owner of multiple Will Smith albums on compact disc, I’m ready for Big Willie Style to get his Academy due.

Should and will win: Will Smith.

Supporting Actress

Should and will win: Did you see Ariana DeBose in “West Side Story?” Yeah, she’s simply incredible, and the best thing about an incredible remake.

Supporting Actor

A couple months ago, it looked like a Kodi Smit-McPhee in “The Power of the Dog” awards season sweep. Since SAG, however, all the momentum shifted to Troy Kotsur of “CODA,” the best performance in a movie full of very good ones.

Should and will win: Troy Kotsur, “CODA.”

Original Screenplay

For most of the season, this looked like a battle between Kenneth Branagh for “Belfast” and Paul Thomas Anderson for “Licorice Pizza,” and, realistically, it’s the only category where either has a chance to win. “Belfast” wasn’t eligible at the Writers Guild Awards (WGA), which made “Licorice Pizza” a virtual lock there, but WHOOPS, “Don’t Look Up” surprised everyone and won at WGA. That probably clears the way for Branagh and “Belfast” for the Oscar.

Will win: “Belfast”

Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson has arguably been the best filmmaker of the past 20 years, and he has ZERO Oscar wins. Insanity.

Adapted Screenplay

It basically comes down to the same argument as Best Picture. If you think “CODA” wins the top prize, then it’d be insane to predict anything else here.

Will win: “CODA.”

Should win: “The Power of the Dog,” but “Drive My Car,” “Dune” and “The Lost Daughter” are all strong screenplays.

Animated Feature

The Oscars love Disney, and “Encanto” became one of the few Hollywood success stories of 2021 (even though most of its buzz came after the movie shifted from theaters to Disney+. Netflix’s “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” could surprise, as it’s technically the best reviewed of the bunch and was the big winner at the Annies (the big animation industry awards) a couple weeks ago.

Will win: “Encanto.”

Should win: “The Mitchells vs. the Machines.”

International Feature

Should and will win: Best Picture nominee “Drive My Car.”

Documentary Feature

Will win: “Summer of Soul” won pretty much all the precursors.

Should win: Pour one out for “Flee,” which made history by getting nominated in Documentary, International and Animated categories.

Cinematography

Look for “Dune” to take several craft awards on Sunday, though this one might be its most contentious with “The Power of the Dog.”

Will win: “Dune.”

Should win: “The Tragedy of MacBeth.”

Film Editing

Often a major precursor prize for the eventual Best Picture winner, this year’s lineup includes “Power of the Dog” but not “Belfast” or “CODA.” If “Power” wins here, its odds improve for Picture.

Will win: “King Richard.”

Should win: “The Power of the Dog.”

Original Score

Will win: “Dune.”

Should win: “The Power of the Dog.”

Original Song

Disney didn’t submit megahit “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” for contention, opting instead for the ballad, “Dos Oruguitas.” Oops. Lin-Manuel Miranda might earn his EGOT anyway, but he contends with superstars like Beyonce and Billie Eilish in the category.

Will and should win: “No Time to Die” by Billie Eilish. Lin will be back. Then again, Eilish could be back soon too, as those boy band songs she wrote for “Turning Red” are BANGIN’.

Costume Design

Should and will win: “Cruella.”

Production Design

Will win: “Dune.”

Should win: “Nightmare Alley.”

Makeup and Hair Design

Will win: “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.”

Should win: “Dune.”

Sound

Should and will win: “Dune.”

Visual Effects

Should and will win: “Dune.”

The Shorts

I screw these up almost every year, mostly because I usually don’t watch them prior to the ceremony. I’m stealing these choices from the consensus of other online prognosticators:

Animated Short: “Robin Robin.” Hey, I’ve seen this one! It’s from Aardman Animation (the folks behind frequent Oscar minted “Wallace & Gromit”).

Documentary Short: Some big names (like Shaq and Steph Curry) are backing “The Queen of Basketball.”

Live-Action Short: Riz Ahmed, an acting nominee last year for the excellent “Sound of Metal,” appears in, co-wrote and produced contender, “The Long Goodbye.” When in doubt, go with a notable name.

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Tyler Wilson is a member of the International Press Academy and has been writing about movies for Inland Northwest publications since 2000, including a regular column in The Press since 2006. He can be reached at twilson@cdapress.com.”