COEUR d’ALENE — North Idaho may need a miracle for a white Christmas.

Climatologist Cliff Harris gave a white Christmas in North Idaho just a 13% chance due to a high-pressure ridge and El Niño keeping things unseasonably warm. 

Even though the six-day forecast includes highs in the 40s and rain, Harris said not to give up on seeing snow Wednesday as temperatures dip into the low 30s

"We just have to wait and see,” he said. 

Meteorologist Miranda Coté with the National Weather Service's Spokane office said forecast models indicate "some risk for snow but not a good risk.”

"There’s a better chance for rain on Christmas Eve night than snow,” Coté said

Based on data collected from 1991-2020, the probability of there being at least 1 inch of snow on the ground for Christmas in Coeur d’Alene is about 60%, Coté said. 

The probability is higher a little farther north in Priest Lake, Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry.

Harris said just 2.7 inches of snow have fallen this month in Coeur d'Alene, the least since 1929, when only 4.3 inches of snow fell through Dec.18. 

He said while many are disappointed with the lack of snow, the good news is that heating bills will be lower, roads have been clear and dry and flowers in some yards are still blooming. 

“It's quite something,” he said. 

Currently, lowland communities are about 10 inches below normal on snow, but the mountain snowpack is more encouraging, measuring at 100-120% of normal in most areas.

As of Dec. 17, Pend Oreille-Kootenai snowpack is measuring at 117% of normal, while the Coeur d’Alene-St. Joe snowpack is at 104% of normal.

How “white” the rest of winter will be is also difficult to predict. While a La Niña watch is in place from the Climate Prediction Center, there is only a 57% chance of the colder, wetter pattern emerging.

“Any La Niña event that develops is favored to be a weak, short-duration event,” Coté said.

Harris said Wednesday’s high temperature was a relative heat wave of 54, just 4 degrees shy of the record high for Dec. 18 set in 1917. 

It was a blustery day, with one gust measuring 61 mph, not far from the 74-mph maximum sustained winds to reach hurricane status. 

"We haven’t had winds like that in a couple years,” he said.