KENNEWICK — For all the research, all the focus groups, all the test marketing, it is the consumer who ultimately decides the success of something new or different. That’s as true in the tree fruit industry as anywhere else - the apple variety that was the queen of the orchard in 1967, or 1997 or 2017, might have a fraction of market share today. Or maybe it’s not on the market at all.

So it’s important for a grower to plant the right variety at the right time - after all, a newly planted orchard won’t produce a crop for three or four years, or longer. The grower has to be on the lookout for the coming varieties, the ones that will catch the customer’s fancy and (most importantly) make money.

So what’s that next apple? What’s the coming variety?

“We don’t know,” said Kevin Brandt, vice president and chief operating officer of Proprietary Variety Management (Brandt’s Fruit Trees), Yakima.

“To be honest with you, there’s a lot of new varieties, and it’s difficult to get your foot in the market,” Brandt added.

Tyson McCallum, sales and business development for Willow Drive Nursery, Ephrata, said new varieties are under development all over the world, and existing varieties are being marketed in new places. Finding the coming variety, or varieties, is a long process.

“We’re probably bringing in 20 to 30 varieties from across the world to look at,” McCallum said. “To get to commercialization sometimes takes 10 to 20 years.”

Of all the varieties that come in, very few make it past the initial test.

“Maybe one or two actually make it out of that process. Just to not flood the markets,” he said.

There is, after all, only so much shelf space at the market, and that too is a challenge growers must cope with.

“Any more, you almost have to have a year-round supply of a specific variety,” Brandt said.

“Once you lose that spot, it’s difficult to get back in,” he said. “And it’s difficult to get the consumer to remember you, because there’s so many (varieties). So the consumer may love your apple when they try it, but then they don’t see it for a while.”

The market is just one of the factors a grower must consider.

“Picking windows - growers, especially the smaller guys, now want to try and stagger what they grow so they can roll their crew from one harvest into the next and not have any gaps in time,” McCallum said.

The practice of selling fruit trees to growers has changed too - many varieties are marketed on an exclusive basis.

“Most of the newer ones that we’ve seen in recent memory are all club style,” McCallum said. 

A club variety is only available to specific growers.

“Say a new variety comes into play,” he explained. “A lot of times now, one particular packing house or marketing desk will get exclusive rights to that apple.”

Many of the classic varieties, Golden Delicious and Granny Smith being examples, are still out there and are still profitable.

“Granny Smith is here to stay,” Brandt said. “Golden (Delicious), while they declined in production, they are still making good money for those that have them. Red Delicious is a tough one.”

Goldens and Grannies have an advantage, and that’s the fact they’re not red.

“The consumer is always looking for a yellow, red and green apple,” Brandt said.

The Cosmic Crisp variety is an example of the way the market works, the ups and downs. Developed by researchers from Washington State University, Cosmic Crisp started as WA 38. A lot of growers liked what they saw.

“In my mind, it’s bigger than they thought it was going to be, in terms of production,” Brandt said. “In terms of returns - returns are tough. It’s still better than a lot of things on the market, so it’s still holding its ground. But they were really hoping it would be better than it is, but with the economics, it’s tough.”

Cosmic Crisp, however, is only just now fulfilling some of those conditions that improve the chance for success.

“For Cosmic Crisp, we’ve now reached year-round supply. So we’re able to stay on the shelves for an entire year,” Brandt said.

But for now, it’s not necessarily the coming variety.

“Not yet. It’ll be interesting once people outside Washington can grow it. We’ll see what really happens,” McCallum said.

“With everything being red nowadays, we’re always going to have to have a green one like Granny, we’re always going to have to have something yellow. And then there are going to be other red varieties sitting out there. It’s kind of swamped out there,” McCallum said.

“We need a blue apple,” he joked. “We need something that’s an entirely different color.”

Cheryl Schweizer may be reached via email at [email protected].