Republicans in Montana’s key races are polling above their Democratic candidates with the exception of conservative political newcomer Tim Sheehy, who remains neck-and-neck with three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.  

“We’re still a long way from October and November when people are voting but, it does indicate that that Tester-Sheehy race is going to be really close,” said Lee Banville, a political analyst and director of the University of Montana School of Journalism. 

And that comes as no surprise to anyone closely monitoring the race, he said.  

The most recent released poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a public opinion polling firm, in mid-June, and was commissioned by the Montana Republican Party. the Among those surveyed, 52% identified as Republicans and 32% as Democrats.  *

In the presidential race, 57% of respondents planned to vote for former President Donald Trump while 37% indicated they would vote for President Joe Biden. In the gubernatorial race, 54% backed Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte while 33% supported Democrat Ryan Busse.  

But respondents split in the Senate race with Tester and Sheehy both earning support from 46% of those surveyed. Green Party candidate Michael Downey and Libertarian Party candidate Sid Daoud secured 2% of the vote each. 

“What’s interesting is that there is this big open question with the Tester-Sheehy race where some of the people who vote for former president Donald Trump are willing to vote for Tester too,” Banville said. “They’re actually making a decision based on each candidate — that’s got to be good news for Jon Tester.” 

Republican Party officials in Montana, though, saw good news for Sheehy in the results. They noted that Sheehy, a Bozeman businessman and former Navy SEAL, is a newcomer to politics still building name recognition. 

“We have a three-term senator that is polling at 46%. A three-term senator,” said Don Kaltschmidt, the chair of the Montana GOP. “We have Tim Sheehy, who was a political unknown until about a year ago, who is polling at 46%. So, we look at that as being a very, very positive for us.”  

Montana now has a reputation as a conservative state, Kaltschmidt said. People who live here, and those who move here, do so in part because of that conservative bent, he said.  

The polling data reaffirms that, Kaltschmidt said.  A tied race at this point is a good thing, he said.  

“The Republican Party is getting stronger and stronger,” Kaltschmidt said.  

Democrats, though, see weakness in Sheehy’s performance in the polling data.  

"Montanans of all stripes, including Republicans, see Tim Sheehy for who he is: a multimillionaire transplant who is doing everything he can to change Montana for the worse. The more Montanans learn about him, the less they like him – from his lies about who he is, to his support for transferring off public lands,” said Hannah Rehm, spokesperson for the Montana Democratic Party. 

The Senate race, like many anticipated, is projected to be close, Banville said. Third-party candidates can be decisive in determining who will win. He cautioned, though, that not all of their backers would have otherwise cast ballots for a candidate from a major party.   

But in a race like this, everything is a factor — down to the weather on Election Day, Banville said.  

“If you're looking at a race as close as Tester and Sheehy look right now, everything can be a factor,” he said.  

Reporter Kate Heston can be reached at kheston@dailyinterlake.com or 758-4459. 

* This paragraph was updated to accurately state where the poll came from.