Jon Tester knows his return to the United States Senate hangs on a knife-edge. 

“Truth is we’re not taking any votes for granted in this state, the fact is we are going to need every damn one of them if we’re going to win,” said the three-term Democratic senator at a get out the vote rally in Kalispell on Saturday night. “This is going to be a close election.”  

More than 300 people gathered in the Hilton Garden Inn — among them a host of Democratic candidates further down the ballot — on Nov. 2 to show support for the sole Democrat in Montana’s congressional delegation. Though polls, until recently, had shown Tester lagging behind Republican businessman Tim Sheehy and national media outlets had designated the Senate race as either leans Republican and likely Republican, the crowd in what Tester called “the reddest part of the state” radiated hope, excitement and energy. *

In his final pitch to voters, Tester argued he was the transparent, commonsense and Montanan choice.  

Tester welcomed, one by one, other candidates up onto the stage and led the crowd in chants for each. They included Raph Graybill, the running mate of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ryan Busse.  

“This election really is the most important election in our lifetimes,” Graybill said, drawing cheers from the crowd. 

Tester and other Democrats encouraged voters to knock on more doors and seek out more conversations with undecided voters.  

After a weekend of traveling across the state, Tester expects to spend Tuesday night in Great Falls. 

As Tester rallied Democrats in Kalispell, his Republican rival shored up support in Townsend on Saturday. The day prior, Sheehy was joined by U.S. Sens. Steve Daines, R-Montana, and Tom Cotton, R-Arkansas, in Manhattan. Earlier that week, he appeared in Billings alongside U.S. Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyoming, in Billings.  

Sheehy told the audience at a recent Kalispell rally that he was going on a statewide tour and focusing on connecting face-to-face with voters in his final push.  

“Montanans will decide control of the U.S. Senate, and the choice is clear ... I’m humbly asking Montanans for your vote because we have an opportunity to save our country’s future for the next generation by defeating Tester and Kamala [Harris] — let’s take it," Sheehy said in an emailed statement on Friday.  

IN WHAT has become one of the biggest — and most expensive — elections nationwide, Tester and Sheehy are locked in a dead heat. In the 37th annual Mountain States Poll conducted by Montana State University-Billings, each candidate drew 43% of the vote. 

Other polls show a tight margin. Sheehy narrowly leads Tester 50% to 46%, with 3% undecided, according to an Oct. 27 poll conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill. 

That survey also shows former President Donald Trump outperforming Vice President Kamala Harris in Montana by a wider margin than against President Joe Biden in 2020. Trump ultimately won the state that year.  

State Republicans are optimistic about Trump and Sheehy as well as races down the ballot. 

“We feel very good that we should be able to sweep all the statewide races,” said Don Kaltschmidt, Montana Republican Party Chairman, late last week.  

In Montana’s first congressional district, Missoula Democrat Monica Tranel and Whitefish Republican Ryan Zinke are facing off at the ballot box for the second time. Tranel lost to Zinke in 2022. 

“It’s not my first rodeo,” Zinke said on Friday. “... I trust Montana to make the right judgement.” 

He also lamented the tone of this campaign cycle, criticizing the attack ads bombarding voters across the state. 

“My concern is that campaigns have become so viciously attacking, not on policy, but on personal assassination ... when you’re done with the election the damage is done,” he said.  

Zinke currently leads Tranel by five percentage points, based on seven polls, according to The Hill. Tranel lost to Zinke in 2022 by three percentage points.  

“We know what you're up against here in Flathead County. We know that it's a two-to-one game here,” Tranel told fellow Democrats during the Saturday night rally with Tester in Kalispell. 

Tranel told the Inter Lake last week that she is hopeful voters will choose a candidate that is for the people of Montana, as opposed to Zinke.  

“I’ve given people a choice and that choice is really Montana; you can vote for yourself and you can vote for Montana, and that’s a vote for me on the ballot,” Tranel said.  

Tranel spent the weekend visiting the counties and tribal nations in the district. She will spend the evening of Nov. 5 in Missoula. Zinke will stay in the Flathead Valley and plans to host an election watch party in Whitefish.  

In the state’s eastern congressional district, polls show Republican State Auditor Troy Downing with a sizeable lead over Democrat John Driscoll, a former member of the Public Service Commission. 

In the state’s gubernatorial race, Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte holds a significant polling lead over Busse, a Kalispell businessman. Gianforte led Busse 50% to 31%, according to an October survey by Montana State University-Billings. 

Busse has campaigned on higher property tax bills under Gianforte, accusing the governor of lacking accountability and using his term to benefit wealthier Montanans.  In a time where national politics are so divisive, Busse said he feels confident that frustration with Gianforte’s tenure among voters is forging a common ground.  

“I’m proud of the campaign that we ran and I’m proud of all the Montanans who have stood up for the state they live,” Busse said on Friday. 

Busse plans to spend Election Day in Helena. 

THE GOP enjoyed a supermajority in the Montana Legislature during the last legislative session. While Kaltschmidt expects voters to favor Republicans, he questioned whether it would be enough to maintain another supermajority given the latest round of redistricting.  

“The supermajority might be a little bit beyond our grasp because of the gerrymandering we had at the district level [by Democrats],” he said. “But ... a lot of people have moved in here with conservative values. That could change all the demographics that the Democrats were counting on when they redistricted.” 

He added that he was confident that voters would send conservatives to the statehouse and to Congress.  

Kaltschmidt also expected Montanans would send conservative judges to the state Supreme Court, vote down all three constitutional initiatives, send Trump back to the White House and retain the Gianforte administration. 

Ron Gerson, president of the Flathead County Democrats, acknowledged that Republicans were likely to win a lot of the races on the ballot. Still, he believed that local Democratic candidates put more effort into the ground game this election cycle, meeting voters at public forums, talking with potential constituents and fielding interviews with news outlets. 

“There has been so much media — advertisements, political campaign literature that comes to people’s inboxes — most people are just feeling overwhelmed at the barrage,” Gerson said.  “There hasn’t been enough of the old-fashioned seeing people, hearing people, and being able to compare people ...  I think a lot of people would have appreciated that.” 

During the last legislative session, the Flathead Valley had a lone Democrat, Dave Fern, who represented a House District encompassing Whitefish, in the statehouse. 

Gerson also encouraged people to investigate the names and people on the ballot and not just vote down the party line. He criticized those candidates who have avoided public appearances or communications.  

“They may serve their own campaign purposes, but they don't necessarily serve their constituents,” he said. 

Reporter Kate Heston can be reached at kheston@dailyinterlake.com or 758-4459.

*This graf was edited to accurately represent the number of attendees. 

    Ryan Busse, Democratic candidate for governor, speaks with Sen. Jon Tester before a Get Out the Vote Rally held at the Hilton Garden Inn in Kalispell on Saturday, Nov. 2. (Casey Kreider/Daily Inter Lake)
 Casey Kreider   

    Monica Tranel, Democratic candidate for the Western Congressional District, takes the stage during a Get Out the Vote Rally held at the Hilton Garden Inn in Kalispell on Saturday, Nov. 2. (Casey Kreider/Daily Inter Lake)
 Casey Kreider   

    Sen. Jon Tester speaks during a Get Out the Vote Rally held at the Hilton Garden Inn in Kalispell on Saturday, Nov. 2. (Casey Kreider/Daily Inter Lake)
 Casey Kreider   

    Shannon O'Brien, Democratic candidate for State Superintendent of Schools, speaks during a Get Out the Vote Rally held at the Hilton Garden Inn in Kalispell on Saturday, Nov. 2. (Casey Kreider/Daily Inter Lake)
 Casey Kreider   

    John Repke, Democratic candidate for State Auditor, speaks during a Get Out the Vote Rally held at the Hilton Garden Inn in Kalispell on Saturday, Nov. 2. (Casey Kreider/Daily Inter Lake)
 Casey Kreider   

    Sen. Jon Tester takes the microphone after being introduced by Raph Graybill, Democratic candidate for Lieutenant Governor, during a Get Out the Vote Rally held at the Hilton Garden Inn in Kalispell on Saturday, Nov. 2. (Casey Kreider/Daily Inter Lake)
 Casey Kreider   

    Ben Alke, Democratic candidate for Attorney General, speaks during a Get Out the Vote Rally held at the Hilton Garden Inn in Kalispell on Saturday, Nov. 2. (Casey Kreider/Daily Inter Lake)
 Casey Kreider   

    The crowd claps as Sen. Jon Tester re-introduces Democratic candidates for federal and state office positions during a Get Out the Vote Rally held at the Hilton Garden Inn in Kalispell on Saturday, Nov. 2. (Casey Kreider/Daily Inter Lake)
 Casey Kreider