The sun continues to emit strong storms

Our sun continues to make news headlines as we’re still in a strong solar cycle that has generated numerous solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). CMEs are a large release of plasma and accompanying magnetic field from the sun’s outer layer of its atmosphere. They will often follow solar flares and be released into the solar wind.

 As I’ve mentioned in previous articles, we’re currently in Solar Cycle 25, which is the 25th since 1755 when the recording of solar sunspot activity started. Since the beginning of Solar Cycle 25 in December 2019, the number of sunspots, or storms on the sun, has been at its highest since 2002. Prior to this cycle, Solar Cycle 24, sunspots, and solar flares were minimal as scientists stated that it was one of the weakest solar cycles in recorded history.

 After the last solar cycle in 2019, many of the predictions stated that Solar Cycle 25 would be relatively mild, but it turned out to be much stronger than many scientists had anticipated. According to an article by Science Alert, the sun’s activity has been on an increasing trajectory of storms since 2008. Some of the solar storms earlier this year were strong enough to generate spectacular light shows, also known as the Northern Lights or the Aurora Borealis, as far south as Florida. I did see some very nice photos of the Northern Lights around the Coeur d’Alene region that were posted last month on social media when we had strong solar storms.

When solar activity is high and the Earth is exposed to strong solar flares and CMEs, the Northern Lights are most often visible to those in far northern Canada, Europe, Alaska, and other areas of the very high latitudes. However, if the Earth receives a strong CME, the lights can be visible much farther to the south, which was the case earlier this year.

During the infamous Carrington Event on Sept. 1-2, 1859, when a super-strong solar flare hit the Earth, auroras were seen in areas as far south as Cuba and Hawaii. The auroras were so bright that their glow awoke gold miners in the Rocky Mountains. Telegraph systems all over North America and Europe stopped working and some generated sparks and fires.

The recent increase in activity may be part of the sun’s “Hale cycle.” According to the article, the Hale cycle describes the full magnetic cycle of the Sun that lasts approximately 22 years. It is made up of two consecutive 11-year solar cycles, during which the sun’s magnetic polarity flips twice before returning to its original orientation.

We are likely near the peak of Solar Cycle 25, but state it could be as late as March 2026. Despite the expected slight decrease in solar activity later next year, scientists anticipate more solar and geomagnetic storms over at least the next several years. This current cycle is expected to flip to a “solar minima,” or Solar Cycle 26, around 2030.

With the high number of sunspots in this current cycle, there is a concern for additional strong solar flares that would have the potential to damage electronic equipment or satellites that orbit the Earth. The most powerful solar flares are X-class storms. According to another article on Space.com, there have been about 20 X-flares that hit our planet this year. However, there was a strong solar storm Nov. 11 that included a high-speed proton stream.

This particular solar storm was rare as radiation levels in the Earth’s atmosphere rose to their highest level in about two decades. The solar flare was a powerful X5.1, and scientists discovered that radiation levels were ten times higher than normal. Pregnant women in aircraft at 40,000 feet would have been at risk if they were exposed for more than 12 hours to these levels. Fortunately, the phenomenon only lasted a few hours.

In terms of our local weather, the lower elevations of the Inland Northwest finally received some measurable snowfall over the last week. Approximately 7 inches of snow has been reported at Cliff Harris’s station in Coeur d’Alene.

I also wanted to mention that you can see the snow in real time at North Idaho College. A snow stick and web camera were set up to show accumulated snowfall totals and there is a viewer over the previous 24 hours to show the conditions and accumulating snowfall. The website also has temperature, humidity and air quality data. It was put together by Professor Bill Richards and is located at https://br1.nic.edu/webcam01/.

As I mentioned last week, as we get closer to the new moon lunar phase Dec. 19, the long-range forecast models are still showing an increasing chance of colder and wetter conditions across the region. Assuming this pattern develops and continues through the end of the month, the chances for a White Christmas in the Spokane and Coeur d’Alene region are better than 50/50. Since 1895, there has been a White Christmas in Coeur d’Alene about 70% of the time, while the Spokane International Airport sees a White Christmas around 50% of the time.

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Contact Randy Mann at [email protected].