THE CHEAP SEATS with STEVE CAMERON: Julio's glove gives him Star shine
Coeur d'Alene Press | UPDATED 1 year, 1 month AGO
Julio Rodriguez has caused a ruckus.
He’s got fans arguing at ballparks and in saloons, yelling about this player’s extra-base hits and another guy’s attempts to steal third with two outs.
Whoa, wait a second.
Stop!
It’s not fair to hang this hubbub on Julio, who goes out and does his job playing baseball every day.
Now, if you’ve got a problem with Julio being selected for next week’s All-Star Game, talk to the commissioner’s office.
Players don’t select themselves.
Oh, and talk to baseball’s unofficial “scientists,” the new guardians of the game who create stats out of nothing and decide each player’s value in night games as opposed to daytime.
Among other things.
For the record, fan ballots dictate the starters for the ASG, then reserves (plus pitchers) are chosen by the commissioner’s office and a group of players.
There are goof-ups every year — surprise players named while others are unfairly omitted — and fans from several cities are going to have a beef.
Always.
It’s a rite of summer.
YOU CAN surely make the case that Julio didn’t whack his way into the Midsummer Classic with his bat.
His batting average of .247 and OPS (.695) are each career lows, and he’s hit a modest 11 home runs.
If you want a number straight from the geek community, Julio is carrying a bWAR of 3.4.
(That’s Wins Above Replacement, in this case offered up by Baseball Reference, and as of Tuesday morning, Julio’s 3.4 was 22nd in the American League.)
There’s one area in which Julio is undeniably awful, and it drives me crazy.
I’ve started closing my eyes when Julio bats in critical game situations.
And to be fair, old-fashioned fans and analytics disciples are united in their feelings (sigh) when Julio walks to the plate in a crucial spot.
It’s REALLY frustrating this season, too, with the smoking hot bat of Cal Raleigh waiting on deck.
We’re all thinking: Can’t Julio drop a little pop fly on some open grass along the foul line?
Or: If he got nicked by a pitch here, that would get Cal to the plate.
Is it really that bad?
Yes.
Here are the cruel numbers: Julio is hitting .175 with two outs and a runner (or two) in scoring position.
Things aren’t wildly better with runners in scoring position and less than two outs, either — batting average of .209, which ranks 132nd overall.
You don’t need me to tell you that those numbers, in situations where your stars MUST make winning plays, are dreadful.
They’re certainly not the stats you’d associate with an all-star, are they?
SO, HOW did Julio Rodriguez wind up ticketed for the All-Star Game in Atlanta?
He’s obviously not the same all-around bundle of excitement that’s left fans thrilled for the past few years.
Let me correct that.
Julio is not the same offensively — except on the bases, where he has pocketed 15 steals in 18 attempts.
He still frightens pitchers, and defenders who have to move out of position on a steal attempt.
Another plus: Julio HAS cut down on strikeouts, which ultimately should buy him some extra balls in play.
Now we come to the difference-maker.
The big red flashing light that says, “ALL-STAR” is hauled into place when J-Rod trots out to play center field.
He’s the best in the game.
It’s hard to believe that Julio started in pro ball as a corner outfielder, with an average speed rating.
True.
He worked like crazy on sprints, on routes, on throws, convinced he could force the Mariners into putting him in center.
The result has been breathtaking.
According to Statcast, he’s 96th percentile in MLB in fielding run value and 77th percentile in baserunning run value.
And breaking it down even more, he’s 97th percentile in range (outs above average), 95th percentile in arm strength, 93rd percentile in sprint speed, and 76th percentile in arm value.
Brent Stecker of Seattle Sports wrote an excellent piece about players who became all-stars almost entirely on defense.
Most were infielders, like the wondrous Ozzie Smith.
Stecker argued that some outfielders did make the ASG with defense.
“Center fielder Devon White was one of two California Angels to make the 1989 AL All-Star team,” Stecker wrote.
“That was a year when he had 4.0 bWAR and stole 44 bases, but hit just .245 with a .653 OPS.”
OK, then.
Let the arguments resume.
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Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press three times each week, normally Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday unless, you know, stuff happens.
Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”