THE CHEAP SEATS with STEVE CAMERON: When one plus two doesn't always equal three

The Dan Wilson debate rumbles along.

Even as the front office is scouting players to take the club one step further, the quarreling Mariners universe still cannot agree about the manager.

There is actually considerable sympathy for Wilson, whose decision in Game 7 of the ALCS likely cost the M’s a spot in the World Series.

Here’s your argument from the pro-Wilson crowd: “He was in a spot where any choice could have been right or wrong.”

True.

There’s also a scientific truth on Wilson’s side, believe it or not.

The thousands (or millions) of fans who found Wilson guilty of mismanagement have zeroed in on his decision to use Eduard Bazardo — the club’s No. 4 reliever — with a 3-1 lead, two on and Toronto slugger George Springer coming to the plate.

You know what happened from there, right?

Wilson’s critics have cried: “Why didn’t he use his No. 1 reliever, Andres Munoz?”

Munoz was almost the surest thing in that situation, having not surrendered a home run all season.

IT WOULD not have been a lock, though.

Whether Wilson had gone with Bazardo, Munoz or even Matt Brash, the result was not guaranteed.

I mentioned science looming over this entire plot.

We’re talking about the “Fallacy of the Predetermined Outcome.”

In other words, it’s faulty logic to look back at an outcome and be certain that the result would have been different if circumstances were changed.

For instance, a young man decides to turn right at a corner, and he gets hit by a bus.

The common refrain is simple: “If only he’d turned left, there would be no bus and he’d have lived happily ever after.”

Ah, but we don’t KNOW that.

There would have been trillions of possible outcomes if our friend had turned left.

The whole thing gets a lot more complicated than one sentence, but here’s a baseball example.

J.P. Crawford leads off an inning with a single, but Julio Rodriguez grounds into a double play.

Cal Raleigh follows with another single, and as he stands on first, fans grumble and say: “If Julio hadn’t hit that ball to the shortstop, we’d have two on and no outs.”

Maybe.

And maybe not.

To use our logic, Raleigh’s single with a runner on is a “predetermined outcome,” and it’s faulty to assume it would have happened.

Perhaps the pitcher would have taken a deeper breath.

Or decided on a fastball instead of a breaking pitch.

There are an infinite number of possibilities, all of which would have changed the outcome — maybe slightly, maybe even dramatically.

So, back to poor Dan Wilson in that seventh inning.

Thinking we know what MIGHT have happened if he’d gone to Munoz is based on totally false logic.

I LIKE Dan Wilson the person, but I’m not a fan of Dan Wilson the manager.

I watched him make a string of weird (and often unsuccessful) decisions all season long.

I have a story for you.

This is a tiny sample size, I get it, but Wilson made a move one night in Cleveland that left me saying: “Is anyone helping this guy with decisions? Is he too stubborn to listen?”

Ironically, this was one of the rare times that Munoz did not have command.

The Mariners went to the bottom of the ninth up 4-3, but Nolan Jones led off with a sharp double.

Brayan Rocchio followed with a single to left, scoring Jones.

Rocchio advanced all the way to third when Arozarena let the ball get past him.

Suddenly, the winning run was on third, with nobody out, and Steven Kwan coming up to hit.

Now, you HAVE to walk Kwan in that situation.

Kwan was the second-toughest batter to strike out in MLB. He absolutely would put the ball in play.

Every manager would walk him, every time.

Except Wilson.

I remember yelling: “What are you doing?”

Three pitches later, Kwan hit a sacrifice fly to center, Rocchio scored easily and the game was over.

You see why I don’t trust Wilson’s decisions, yes?

But.

I don’t get to use the “predetermined outcome” in my argument.

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Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press three times each week, normally Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday unless, you know, stuff happens.

Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”